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Houston Astros at New York Yankees Free Pick 05/28/18

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros are making a road trip to Bronx to play the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The game gets underway 1:05 p.m. ET and ATTSN Southwest will broadcast this AL matchup.

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Odds

New York (+130) is the underdog to Houston (-140) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at nine runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). The game’s runline odds sit at +105 for betting the Astros -1.5 runs and -125 for the Yankees +1.5 runs.

The Yankees are 33-16 SU and 25-23 ATS. They’ve gained 7.0 units for moneyline bettors and 1.1 units against the spread (ATS). New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Astros are 34-20 SU and have gone 30-23 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 1.9 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going and 5.3 units ATS. Houston’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven.

New York games have an over/under record of 28-18-2 thus far in 2018. The Astros have been a good under bet with a total record of 19-31-3.

Justin Verlander will get the start for Houston. The right-handed Verlander is 6-2 with a 1.08 ERA and 93 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against New York this year.

The Yankees are going with righty Domingo German (0-2, 5.59 ERA), who’s got 34 strikeouts and 15 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.34. German is 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Houston this year.

Houston’s pitching staff allowed 2.7 runs per game and its starters own a 2.46 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.43 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 2.96, along with a WHIP of 0.96 and a K-per-9 of 9.88.

The Astros offense has slashed .259/.334/.421 on its way to 5.0 runs scored per game in 2018, including 6.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 7.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Jose Altuve and right fielder George Springer have led Houston’s hitters. Altuve is slashing .330/.377/.457 with three home runs, 28 RBIs, 31 runs and six stolen bases, while Springer (.294/.357/.509) has produced 11 homers, 34 RBIs and 42 runs scored.

Maintaining a slash line of .393/.460/.680 across 248 plate appearances, Altuve performed well against righties on the road last season (his total season line was .345/.409/.547).

In the home-team dugout, New York’s pitching staff has given up 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.10, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.6. The bullpen has a 3.48 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 12.3 K/9.

New York’s hitters are putting up 5.8 runs per outing, including 5.9 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .228/.306/.449 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have led the Yankees’ hitters this year. Judge is hitting .290/.425/.579 with 14 home runs, 39 RBIs and 39 runs scored, while Stanton’s line sits at .246/.323/.477 with 11 homers, 28 RBIs and 34 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .284/.422/.627, Judge seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .318/.424/.771 over 257 such plate appearances.

The Astros have gained 4.3 units and are 21-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 13 of those games, compared to 21 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Yankees have netted 1.1 units and are 16-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 21 of those games, compared to nine which went under the total.

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

New York has posted 25.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.8 over its last five.

The Astros have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.

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