The Phoenix Suns (4-15) clash with the Indiana Pacers (12-8) at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 27, 2018.
Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns ATS Prediction
In the Pacers’ last outing, they dismantled the Utah Jazz, 121-88, as 1.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (209) came in just over the projected point total of 207.5. The Pacers had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.637 (above their season average of 0.533), while the Jazz had a free throw rate of 0.148 (below their season average of 0.241). Domantas Sabonis had a good game for Indiana, finishing with 13 points, 10 rebounds and six assists.
The Suns fell to the Detroit Pistons in their last contest, 118-107. They were unable to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (225) came in over the O/U total of 221.5. Detroit’s 10.3 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Phoenix, who had a mark of 15.7. The Pistons’ mark was better than their season average of 11.9. With 25 points and 13 rebounds, Deandre Ayton had a good performance for Phoenix.
After the Pacers won both contests against the Suns last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Indiana won 116-101. Indiana had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.619 vs. 0.470). Phoenix, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (21.7 vs. 8.6).
Indiana has a respectable 12-8 straight up (SU) record, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (8-10-1 against the spread (ATS)). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Pacers games, with 10 unders compared to 9 overs.
Meanwhile, Phoenix is 4-15 SU and 8-11 ATS. Similarly to Indiana, games involving the Suns have gone under the projected point total 52.6 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Sabonis (15 points,11.8 rebounds,4.8 assists) has been fantastic for the Pacers while Devin Booker (24 points,9.0 assists,1.6 steals) has made great contributions to the Suns.
Phoenix might have a difficult time scoring as they face off against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Indiana currently ranks fourth in defensive efficiency while the Suns rank 28th in offensive efficiency.
Indiana Pacers vs. Phoenix Suns Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Indiana is 3-5-1 ATS with 6 overs and 3 unders.
Phoenix is 5-4 ATS at home with 6 unders and 3 overs.
Indiana is 6-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Phoenix is 1-0.
The Suns are 4-9 when they score over 100 points, while the Pacers are 10-4.
Indiana ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.1) while Phoenix ranks 29th (54.4).
The Pacers average 21.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the league. The Suns rank 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (21.0).
Indiana averages 9.2 steals per game, which ranks third in the league. Phoenix ranks 27th in steals allowed per game (9.7).
The Pacers rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.1) while the Suns rank 20th (14.2).
Indiana ranks 10th in assists allowed per game (23.2) while Phoenix ranks 28th (25.7).
The Pacers rank 10 in fast break points per game (14.85) while the Suns rank 27 in fast break points allowed per game (17.842105263157894).
Phoenix ranks 4 in three pointers allowed per game (29.157894736842106) while Indiana ranks 18 (32.05).
The Pacers rank 2 in rebounds allowed per game (41.45) while the Suns rank 14 (44.63157894736842).
Indiana ranks 18 in blocks per game (5.15) while Phoenix ranks 26 (3.9473684210526314).
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Over its last five outings, Indiana is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.8, up from 4.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (6.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 117.0 points per game (2.7 above their season average).
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