The Miami Heat (7-12) look to end their five-game home losing streak when they go head-to-head against the Atlanta Hawks (4-16), who will attempt to snap their seven-game road losing streak. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 27, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction
In the Hawks’ last outing, they narrowly defeated the Charlotte Hornets, 124-123, as 6.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (247) finished well over the projected point total of 229. Atlanta made 16 of their 39 three pointers (41.0 percent). Charlotte, meanwhile, did a terrific job of converting from the free throw line (23-28; 82.1 percent). Atlanta received a boost from John Collins, who was the team’s high scorer with 23 points on 11-for-16 shooting.
The Heat lost to the Toronto Raptors in their last matchup, 125-115, but did cover as 12-point underdogs. The total points for the game (240) finished well over the projected point total of 215. Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Miami. The Raptors had a rate of 0.583 (above their season average of 0.550), while the Heat posted a mark of 0.489. With 16 points and 21 rebounds, Miami’s Bam Adebayo had a good performance.
It might be an error-filled game for the Miami offense. Miami ranks 24th in the league in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.6 percent), while the pesky defense of Atlanta forces the fifth-most turnovers in the NBA (15.1 percent).
Atlanta heads into the contest with records of 4-16 straight up (SU) and 8-12 against the spread (ATS). Hawks games have typically finished over the projected point total (55.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami is 7-12 SU and 8-11 ATS. Games involving the Heat also have typically finished over the projected point total (63.2 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Josh Richardson led both teams with 32 points in the first game, in which the Heat lost 123-118, unable to cover as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 241 points, which was 15.5 points above the projected point total of 225.5 points. Atlanta had a better turnover percentage (14.0 vs. 15.0). Miami, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.0 vs. 22.2).
Hawks vs. Heat Odds Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Hawks, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Atlanta is 5-5 ATS with 5 overs and 5 unders.
At home, Miami is 3-7 ATS with 6 overs and 4 unders.
Miami is 3-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Atlanta is 0-2.
The Heat are 6-9 when they score more than 100 points, while the Hawks are 4-11.
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.5) while Atlanta ranks last (27.6).
The Heat average 14.7 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Hawks rank 29th in second chance points allowed per game (16.9).
Miami ranks fifth in rebounds per game (47.8) while Atlanta ranks 27th in rebounds allowed per game (48.6).
The Hawks rank fourth in fast break points per game (17.4) while the Heat rank 24th (10.9).
Atlanta ranks sixth in blocks per game (6.0) while Miami ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
The Heat rank 9 in three pointers allowed per game (29.789473684210527) while the Hawks rank 26 (34.35).
Atlanta ranks 10 in points off turnovers per game (17.95) while Miami ranks 27 in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.05263157894737).
The Heat rank 13 in steals allowed per game (7.473684210526316) while the Hawks rank 26 (9.55).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Atlanta is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.8, down from 10.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 99.6 points per game (8.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (2.9 below their season average).
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