The Chiefs (-3) are gearing up to welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to Kansas City. This critical early afternoon matchup kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +130 ov 51½
Kansas City Chiefs -3 -150 un 51½
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
In this Sunday AFC game, Kansas City has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -150. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points, and if one team can find paydirt early, it will likely produce a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s O/U has moved downward after originally being set at 52.5. The opening line (-3) hasn’t budged.
The Jaguars are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.7 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2. The Chiefs have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 3.9 units. They’re 3-0 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-0.
The Jaguars have gone 3-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 4-0 SU.
The Jaguars hope to make it two in a row 31-12 win over the Jets in Week 4. Blake Bortles completed 29 passes on 38 attempts for 388 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. T.J. Yeldon (only 52 yards on 18 rushes, one TD) and Leonard Fournette (30 yards on 11 carries) led the running attack while Dede Westbrook (nine receptions, 130 yards) and Donte Moncrief (five catches, 109 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Kansas City is coming off of a 27-23 win over Denver in Week 4. The defense allowed the Broncos to rush for 159 yards on 22 attempts, including two rush TDs. Phillip Lindsay had a productive outing in the loss for Denver, posting 69 rushing yards and a score on 12 attempts. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 28-of-45 passes for 304 yards and one touchdown. Kareem Hunt (121 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack while Tyreek Hill (nine receptions, 54 yards) and Travis Kelce (seven catches, 78 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Jacksonville has run the ball on 41.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 43.4 percent. The Jaguars have produced 114 rush yards/game and have one touchdown on the ground this year. The Chiefs are totaling 113 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.
The Jags offense has logged 274 yards/contest in the air overall and has seven passing score so far. The Chiefs have recorded 300 pass yards per outing and have 14 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Jacksonville appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 95 yards and throw for 183 yards per game. The Kansas City D has allowed 343.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Jags are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.91 to opponents, while the Chiefs have allowed a 7.52 ANY/A.
Offensively, Bortles is up to 940 passing yards this season, and has completed 66 percent of his 116 attempts with seven passing scores and three interceptions. He has a 7.78 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.71 over the last two games.
As a group, T.J. Yeldon, Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief have combined to account for 487 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.
Patrick Mahomes has completed 66-of-100 passes for 886 yards, 11 TDs and zero INTs for Kansas City. His ANY/A stands at 10.70 for the season and 8.03 across his past two outings.
We also expect the Kansas City offense to try for a balanced attack this Sunday. Kareem Hunt (245 rushing yards, one rush TD, 59 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Travis Kelce (193 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Tyreek Hill (313 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined for 523 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns the past two games.
RELATED: Week 5 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
NFL Prediction: Jaguars at Chiefs
SU Winner – Chiefs, ATS Winner – Jaguars, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
Jacksonville was favored by 7 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 40.5. The over cashed and Jacksonville covered in the 31-12 win over the Jets.
As a team, Jacksonville has produced 4.11688311688312 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
Kansas City has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.1 over its last two.
Kansas City has lost one fumble this season while Jacksonville has lost four.
In its last three games, Jacksonville is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Kansas City was favored by 6 points in its last outing and the O/U was set at 53. The under cashed and Kansas City failed to cover in that 27-23 win over Denver.
In its last three games, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Jaguars offense has produced two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chiefs have accounted for three such plays.
The Jacksonville defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up two such plays.
Both teams have produced three rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Jacksonville offense has recorded 12 running plays of 10+ yards while Kansas City has accounted for nine such plays.
The Jaguars defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while the Chiefs have given up three such runs.
Each team defense has produced 10 sacks this season.
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