The Cleveland Cavaliers (2-13) challenge the Los Angeles Lakers (9-7) at Quicken Loans Arena. The game will air on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 21, 2018.
Los Angeles is a 9-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Free Prediction
The Lakers come in on a high note after easily covering the 1.5-point spread against the Miami Heat in their last outing, 113-97. The combined points for the game (210) were under the O/U total of 224.5. The Lakers had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 7.9 (better than their season average of 13.0), while the Heat had a free throw rate of 0.161 (below their season average of 0.211). With 51 points on 19-for-31 shooting, LeBron James was the game’s leading scorer.
In the Cavaliers’ previous matchup, they fell to the Detroit Pistons, 113-102. They failed to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (215) came in just over the projected point total of 213.5. Detroit’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Cleveland. The Pistons had a rate of 34.2 (above their season average of 25.5), while the Cavaliers posted a mark of 22.9. With 18 points on 6-for-10 shooting, Collin Sexton was Cleveland’s leading scorer.
Expect Cleveland to dominate the offensive glass in this showdown. The Cavaliers rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9 percent), while Los Angeles ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.2 percent). It will also be a tale of two styles as the fast-breaking Lakers rank second in possessions per game, while the more methodical Cavaliers rank 28th.
Los Angeles holds records of 9-7 straight up (SU) and 6-10 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Lakers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is 2-13 SU and 7-8 ATS. Cavaliers games have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (60.0 percent).
Tristan Thompson and Sexton have played well over the last five games for Cleveland. Thompson has averaged 14 rebounds,14.2 points per game. Not to be outdone, Sexton has put up 16 points a game during that span.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Lakers won the last game 127-113. Los Angeles had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.8 vs. 15.9). Cleveland, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (19-23; 82.6 percent).
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Betting Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Los Angeles is 4-4 ATS with 4 overs and 4 unders.
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS at home with 4 unders and 3 overs.
Los Angeles is 2-0 when they allow below 100 points, while Cleveland is 1-2.
The Lakers are 9-7 when they score over 100 points, while the Cavaliers are 2-7.
Los Angeles ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.1) while Cleveland ranks 29th (2.7).
The Lakers rank second in points in the paint per game (56.8) while the Cavaliers rank 24th (43.3).
Los Angeles ranks seventh in assists per game (25.1) while Cleveland ranks 29th (19.9).
The Lakers rank seventh in points off turnovers per game (19.6) while the Cavaliers rank 28th (14.6).
Los Angeles averages 8.8 steals per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Cleveland ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
The Lakers rank 2 in fast break points per game (21.5625) while the Cavaliers rank 21 (11.4).
Cleveland ranks 5 in rebounds allowed per game (41.93333333333333) while Los Angeles ranks 23 (47).
The Lakers rank 17 in three pointers attempted per game (30.3125) while the Cavaliers rank 29 (23.066666666666666).
Cleveland averages 14.733333333333333 second chance points per game, which ranks 9 in the league. Los Angeles ranks 20 in second chance points allowed per game (14).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five games, Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Cleveland is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 1.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 98.8 points per game (4.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.0 points per game (8.9 below their season average).
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