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Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins Free Pick 07/11/18

The Milwaukee Brewers will be taking on the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will televise this NL matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Milwaukee (-160) is entering this game as the favorite over Miami (+150) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). The game’s runline odds sit at -110 for picking the Brewers -1.5 runs and -110 for the Marlins +1.5.

Big 10 West, Big 10, Wisconsin, Nebraska

The Marlins are 50-43 against the spread (ATS), but just 38-56 straight up (SU). The team’s gained 1.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 2.5 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Brewers have gone 55-37 SU this year and are 49-42 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 15.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 7.0 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Miami games have a 47-44-2 over/under record so far in 2018. The Brewers have been a good under bet with a total record of 38-50-3.

Freddy Peralta will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. Peralta is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 46 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Marlins will put the ball in the right hand of Dan Straily (3-4, 4.55 ERA), who has 53 strikeouts and 32 walks as well as a 1.38 WHIP. Straily only made one start against the Brewers in 2017 (1-0, 4.50 ERA and four strikeouts across six innings).

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have given up 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.76, a WHIP of 1.36 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.6. The bullpen has a 4.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

Miami’s offense has put up 3.8 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game over its last 10 games and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .335/.408/.458 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .297/.346/.420 with seven home runs, 34 RBIs and 57 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .285/.360/.416 with seven homers, 46 RBIs and 51 runs.

For the visitors, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.78 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.15, along with a WHIP of 1.23 and a K-per-9 of 10.34.

Brewers hitters have slashed .245/.317/.413 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 4.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain have led Milwaukee’s offense. Yelich is slashing .292/.366/.467 with 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, 57 runs and 12 stolen bases, while Cain (.297/.401/.440) is up to eight homers, 27 RBIs, 50 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 16.3 units and are 41-31 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 27 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve hit the under against y starters.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

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Betting Notes

The under has cashed in three of Miami’s last seven games.

Miami has posted 27.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 28.8 over its last five.

The Brewers have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.


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