Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Pittsburgh (-110) is hosting this one as the favorite against Milwaukee (+100) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -210 for the Brewers +1.5 runs and +175 for the Pirates -1.5 runs.
The Pirates are 47-49 straight up (SU) and 44-50 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 6.8 units for moneyline bettors and 8.0 units (ATS). Pittsburgh has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, have gone 55-42 SU this year and are 50-45 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 12.8 units for moneyline bettors and 2.9 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
Pittsburgh games have an over/under record of 45-42-7 so far in 2018. The Brewers have been a decent under bet with a total record of 42-50-3.
Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. Chacin (8-3, 3.78 ERA) has recorded 86 strikeouts in 109.2 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 1.46 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (two starts).
The Pirates are putting the ball in the right hand of Joe Musgrove (3-4, 3.77 ERA), who has 45 strikeouts and 12 walks as well as a 1.37 WHIP. Musgrove has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has given up 4.6 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.29 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a 4.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. In 38 games against divisional opponents, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.18 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.00.
The Pittsburgh hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .277/.345/.516 over its last five games and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.
The Pirates’ offense has been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is hitting .304/.339/.458 with six home runs, 35 RBIs and 38 runs scored, while Marte’s line is .286/.335/.484 with 13 homers, 43 RBIs, 52 runs and 24 stolen bases.
In the visiting dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.78 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.25, along with a WHIP of 1.25.
Brewers hitters have slashed .245/.317/.408 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).
Milwaukee’s offense has been fueled by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is hitting .288/.361/.454 with 11 home runs, 43 RBIs, 58 runs and 12 steals. Cain (.298/.399/.434) has produced eight homers, 27 RBIs, 50 runs and 18 steals.
The Brewers have gained 13.6 units and are 42-34 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 31 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 0.8 units and are 33-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 29 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve cashed the under.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER
The over has cashed in five of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
The Brewers have lost six of their last seven games SU while the Pirates have taken seven of their last eight.
Pittsburgh has posted 21.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.8 over its last five.
Each team has hit 11 home runs over its last 10 games.
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