The Minnesota Timberwolves (38-27) head to Utah to take on the Jazz (31-30) in a matchup that pits great offense against superb defense. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 2, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 210 points with Utah set as a 5.5-point favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
The Timberwolves are trying to rebound after their 108-99 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers in their last game. Portland’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Minnesota. The Trail Blazers had a rate of 6.9 (better than their season average of 12.2), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 13.7. Karl-Anthony Towns was Minnesota’s leading scorer with 34 points on 11-for-19 shooting.
The last time the Jazz played, they were beaten by the Houston Rockets, 96-85. Houston’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Utah. The Rockets had a rate of 14.3 (worse than their season average of 12.3), while the Jazz posted a mark of 21.4 (above their season average of 13.0). Utah’s Rudy Gobert had a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 17 points on 7-for-8 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Utah currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (97.1) and Minnesota is 23rd (98.0). Additionally, the Timberwolves rank third in offensive efficiency (112.0), while the Jazz rank fifth in defensive efficiency (104.0).
Minnesota heads into the game with records of 38-27 straight up (SU) and 30-31-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Timberwolves’ 64 games that accepted bets, 28 have finished under, 35 have finished over and one has pushed.
Meanwhile, Utah owns records of 31-30 SU and 31-30 ATS. Unlike Minnesota, games involving the Jazz have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (52.5 percent).
Jeff Teague has averaged 21.6 points, 6.4 assists and 1.4 steals over the last five games for Minnesota.
The Timberwolves have won both games against the Jazz this season, including an 11-point victory the last time these teams met. Minnesota covered as a 3-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 207 points, which was just 3 points below the projected point total of 210 points. Minnesota did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (25-29; 86.2 percent). Utah, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (14.4 vs. 15.2). Towns recorded a double-double with 24 points and 13 rebounds.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz Free Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 14-16-2 ATS with 17 overs and 15 unders.
Utah is 16-14 ATS at home with 19 unders and 11 overs.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Minnesota is 16-4 and Utah is 20-5.
The Jazz are 25-11 when they score above 100 points, while the Timberwolves are 36-17.
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.3) while Utah ranks 24th (8.3).
The Timberwolves rank third in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Jazz rank 26th (10.6).
Utah ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (9.5) while Minnesota ranks 23rd (13.0).
The Jazz rank second in assists allowed per game (20.3) while the Timberwolves rank 20th (23.8).
Utah ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.2) while Minnesota ranks 20th (45.6).
The Jazz rank 15th in three pointers attempted per game (29.2) while the Timberwolves rank 29th (22.3).
Minnesota averages 18.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Utah ranks 16th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.3).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while the Jazz rank seventh (42.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Utah is 0-5 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.4, up from 2.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 94.2 points per game (8.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 96.4 points per game (5.0 below their season average).
