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NCAA Football Free Pick – Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks

Oregon Ducks

One three-game winning streak will conclude as the No. 20 Oregon Ducks are taking on the No. 7 Stanford Cardinal. The game will get underway at 8:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ABC.

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Preview

Oregon is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 2 points. The Cardinal are also receiving -130 moneyline odds while the Ducks are +110. This Pac-12 tilt should provide several decent live betting possibilities, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 55 points.

The original odds have changed, as the opening line was -2. The game’s total has not moved after it was initially set at 55.

The Cardinal are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-2. The Ducks have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Cardinal are 3-0 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Ducks are 3-0 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

The Cardinal are looking to remain unbeaten following a 30-10 win over UC Davis last week. K.J. Costello completed only 17 passes on 30 attempts for 214 yards, two scores and two interceptions. Trevor Speights (87 rushing yards on 11 attempts) led the ground attack while Kaden Smith (six receptions, 68 yards) and Trenton Irwin (three catches, 28 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Oregon are coming off of a 35-22 win over San Jose State. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Spartans to air it out for 267 yards. Bailey Gaither had a good showing in the loss for San Jose State, recording 90 yards on six catches. For Oregon, Justin Herbert completed 16-of-34 passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. CJ Verdell did it all in the win. Along with 42 rushing yards on 15 attempts, Verdell also reeled in five catches for 85 yards.

Stanford has run the ball on 49.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Oregon has a rush percentage of 60.3 percent. The Cardinal have produced 115 rush yards per game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Ducks are totaling 214 rushing yards per game and have nine total rush TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Ducks might hold an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has generated 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 2.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Cardinal have recorded 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents.

The Cardinal offensive scheme has averaged 243 yards in the air overall and has seven passing TDs so far. The Ducks have produced 289 pass yards per game and have 12 total pass scores.

Stanford seems to hold the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 105 yards and throw for 196 yards per game. The Oregon defense has allowed 226.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 77.0 yards per game on the ground. The Cardinal are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.07 to opposing QBs, while the Ducks have allowed a 5.12 ANY/A.

Offensively, Costello has put up 546 passing yards this season, and has connected on 62 percent of his 61 attempts with six scores through the air and three interceptions. He’s got an 8.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 6.02 over the past two outings.

Justin Herbert has completed 26-of-55 passes for 590 yards, eight TDs and four INTs for Oregon. His ANY/A stands at 9.79 for the season and 9.60 over his past two games.

These two teams faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 49-7 win for Stanford.

Free Pick: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks

SU Winner – Stanford, ATS Winner – Stanford, O/U – Over

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Notes

Team Betting Trends

Stanford was favored by 30 points in its last game. The team failed to cover the spread in the 30-10 triumph over UC Davis.

As a team, Stanford has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last two matchups.

Oregon has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last two.

The Oregon offense has lost one fumble this season while Stanford has not lost any.

Oregon was favored by 43 points in its last outing and the Over/Under was set at 69. The under cashed and Oregon failed to cover in the team’s 35-22 triumph over San Jose State.

Over its last three games, Oregon is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Cardinal offense has created two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Ducks have put up five such plays.

The Stanford defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Oregon has given up five such plays.

The Stanford offense has created three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Oregon has created four such runs.

The Cardinal defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Ducks have given up two such runs.

The Oregon defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times this year. Stanford has recorded nine sacks.

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Written by GMS Previews

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