Three weeks into the college football betting season, our FCS football betting picks are sitting at 7-2 ATS. We were sitting at 6-1 ATS on the year, but we split last week to knock down our average for the season. Like his older brother before him, Tom Flacco is proving to be too much for the FCS. He torched Villanova through the air in a way nobody expected last week, leading the Tigers to a 45-35 upset win over the Wildcats. Our second play was much better though. Kennesaw State had little trouble with Alabama State, covering the number by more than double in a 49-point win.
Week 1 Record: 3-1 ATS
Week 2 Record: 3-0 ATS
Week 3 Record: 1-1 ATS
FCS Week 4 Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Over 55.5 in Samford vs. Chattanooga
It was a difficult first season for Tom Arth, but he has turned things around in his second year at Chattanooga. The Mocs’ passing attack has been humming early on in the season, with Nick Tiano running the offense very effectively. Tiano is averaging more than 10 yards an attempt through the first three games of the season, and the offense is averaging 32.3 points per game.
Samford boasts the best quarterback in the FCS in Devlin Hodges. People have been backing off of Samford after a 1-2 start, but it’s not Hodges fault. He has already thrown for 1,096 yards and 10 touchdowns through three games and nearly led Samford to a win over Florida State two weeks ago.
Both of these teams have offenses that can move the chains and defenses that will surrender a lot of yards. That should lead to plenty of points.
Delaware +28 at North Dakota State
The oddsmakers are simply giving the Bison too much respect here. North Dakota State is the most famous name in the FCS after sending Carson Wentz to the NFL and pulling off a number of upsets against FBS programs over the last decade. That has led to this team being overvalued.
The Bison are a much better team than Delaware and are probably the best team in the FCS. However, the Blue Hens have an excellent defense, and they can stop the run like few teams can at this level. Delaware is allowing 2.8 yards per carry on the season, and North Dakota State has not seen a front seven like this yet. The Bison will win the game, but it will be a low scoring affair.
The Citadel +7.5 at Mercer
Option teams are great at covering spreads that are a touchdown or larger, particularly at this level. FCS games tend to have far fewer points than FBS games, and that leads to greater value in option teams getting points in the FCS too.
Mercer’s defense is going to have a hard time adjusting to a completely new offensive system this week. The Bears faced Samford’s high-powered passing attack last week, and now they must face an option attack that has had two weeks to rest and prepare after Hurricane Florence cancelled The Citadel’s game last Saturday. The Citadel has a real shot of pulling off the upset.
