NCAAF Analysis: The Alabama Crimson Tide have won their first two games and yet have dropped back one spot to rank third in the nation behind Florida State and Oregon. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles were annihilated in their first SEC matchup this year and have the look of a program that continues its decline into one of the worst in the country.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will host the Southern Miss Eagles at Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN2 starting at 6 PM ET.
Not so Golden Eagles
Southern Miss is coming off a weak 26-20 home win over 1-AA Alcorn State which followed a 49-0 loss at Mississippi State in their opener. The Eagles ranked near the bottom of all major offensive and defensive categories after two weeks of play.
Tide of Overlays
Alabama is 2-0 straight up but 0-2 against the spread and is coming off a 41-0 home win over Florida Atlantic as they just missed covering the 42 point spread with the game called off due to lightning with 7:53 remaining to play. The Tide used both of their quarterbacks against FAU as Blake Sims was 11 of 13 for 214 yards and two TD’s while Jake Coker was 15 of 24 for 202 yards and a TD. WR Amari Cooper had a monster day as he tied a school record with 13 receptions good for 189 yards and a TD.
Matchup and Pick
Southern Miss has been the ultimate “bet against” team in road games with a mark of just four payouts in their last 19 away matchups as just eight out of their last 20 away games have gone under the total. Alabama has been a solid home value as of late with six payouts in their last nine games at Bryant Denny Stadium as just six out of their last 19 home games have gone over the total. Southern Miss has struggled to hold board value with Alabama through the years as the Eagles have come away with the money in just three out of their last 11 meetings with the Tide as just one out of the last 6 games between Southern Miss and Alabama have gone over the total. Alabama cannot be happy about Oregon passing them in the polls and will likely take out their frustrations on Southern Miss. We’ll call for the SEC power of Alabama and under the total in this one.
