NCAAF Matchups: The Mizzou Tigers have flexed their SEC muscles in their first two games as QB Maty Mauk is living up to the preseason hype with his confident, gun-slinging style of play. The defending American Athletic Conference UCF Knights are coming off a bye week that followed a heartbreaking 26-24 loss in Ireland to Penn State on a game-ending field goal, as its clear the departure of star QB Blake Bortles will make for a challenging transition.
The Missouri Tigers will host the UCF Knights at Farout Field on Saturday afternoon with kickoff time set for noon ET and coverage on the SEC Network.
Tiger by the Tail
Mizzou is coming off a 49-24 win and cover at Toledo in what was expected to be a potential trap game. Mauk passed for 325 yards and five TD passes. This matchup with UCF will be the toughest yet for the Tigers who have mediocre defensive metrics against weak opponents so far. Mizzou is playing through a transition of losing a host of key starters off of last year’s SEC East Division championship team.
Knights Defense Let Guard Down
UCF allowed 511 yards to Penn State in their loss two weeks ago and allowed Penn State’s sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg to pick them apart late to set up the game winning field goal. Hackenberg passed for 454 yards against the Knights defense. Bortles sparked UCF to the AAC title last year and his absence leaves a void that will take time to fill.
Matchup and Pick
Central Florida has not been a reliable betting value on the road with just eight payouts in their last 20 road games with just five out of their last 18 away games going under the total. Mizzou on the other had has been a somewhat reliable and profitable home team with a mark of just six losses against the spread in their last 17 home games at Farout Field with five out of their last eight home games going under the total. Mizzou won and covered the only previous meeting in this head to head series two years ago in a 21-16 payout at UCF as a 1.5 point road dog with the game staying under the total of 48.5. We’ll take the SEC team in this one with the Missouri Tigers and under the total.
