NCAAF Picks: The Auburn Tigers again demonstrated last week that they have an offense that is among the most dynamic in the game but have a defense that is not up to championship caliber. The Ole Miss Rebels continue to go through a team personality of “Good Bo and Bad Bo” with QB Bo Wallace, who threw away a shot at a game tying field goal opportunity in the final seconds last week.
The Rebels will host the Tigers at Vaught Hemmingway Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ESPN starting at 7 PM ET
Overlays in Shootouts
Auburn is 6-1 straight up, 3-4 against the spread, and 4-3 over the total. Auburn is coming off a 42-35 home win over South Carolina as 18.5 point chalks. The win over South Carolina is a perfect illustration of Auburn as a team. The Tigers rank 15th in the nation for scoring offense but 46th for total defense. It was the lack of a dominant defense that cost Auburn in their national championship game loss to Florida State last year.
Bo Knows (Sometimes)
Ole Miss is 7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS, and 1-7 under the total after a 10-7 loss at LSU in which Wallace threw an unnecessary deep pass that was intercepted in the final seconds when the Rebels were near if not at field goal range. Ole Miss does, however, boast the top-ranked scoring defense in the nation, which has kept the Rebels ahead of opponents even when Wallace has struggled at certain times.
Matchup and Pick
Auburn has been a good betting value on the road as of late with six payouts in their last nine away games. The Tigers have gone under the total in four out of their last six away games. Ole Miss has been an outstanding home betting value however with 14 payouts in their last 19 games at Vaught Hemmingway Stadium. The Rebels have gone under the total in four out of their last six home games.
Auburn has controlled this head-to-head series with Ole Miss as of late with four payouts in their last five games against the Rebels. Four out of the last five meetings between Auburn and Ole Miss have gone over the total. Auburn has come away with the cash in their last three visits to Vaught Hemmingway Stadium.
We’ll call for Auburn and under the total in this one.
