NCAAF Picks: The Michigan Wolverines are limping into their annual rivalry match-up with Ohio State as a pitiful helpless wannabe giant that is mentally stuck in the past and currently inept, outcoached, and in regression. The Ohio State Buckeyes are gaining momentum for a shot at the first ever playoff in college football history but have been losing betting value along the way. Public awareness and betting money has become a drag on OSU’s board value.
The Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Michigan Wolverines at Ohio Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ABC starting at noon ET. Ohio State opened as a 20 point favorite.
Urban Renewal
Ohio State us 10-1 straight up, 7-4 against the spread, and 9-2 over the total. Ohio State is coming off a 42-27 win over Indiana but failed to cover as 36.5 point home favorites. Head coach Urban Meyer has done a masterful job of keeping Ohio State in contention after the loss of QB Braxton Miller in preseason and an increasingly inexplicable home loss to a bad Virginia Tech team. Ohio State ranks 10th in the nation for total offense and a much improved 19th for total defense. QB JT Barrett has done an outstanding job in replacing Miller with a 171.6 QB rating and a 29-8 TD-INT ratio.
Dazed and Blue
Michigan is 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS, and 4-7 under the total. The Wolverines are coming off a 23-16 home loss to Maryland and now must upset the Buckeyes to salvage a minor bowl bid. The Wolverines have regressed badly under fourth year head coach Brady Hoke and have never developed the power offense that he promised upon taking the job. QB Devin Gardner makes too many mistakes and the offensive line can’t bust a rotten tomato.
Our Pick
Michigan has slipped badly as a wagering value on the road. The Wolverines have covered the spread in just three out of their last 10 away matchups with seven out of their last 10 away games going under the total.
Ohio State on the other hand has improved as a betting value at home with 10 payouts in their last 15 home games. The Buckeyes have gone over the total in eight out of their last nine home games.
Ohio State has dominated this head to head series with Michigan. The Buckeyes have covered the number in 12 out of their last 16 games with the Wolverines with three out of the last five meetings between Ohio State and Michigan going under the total. Ohio State has come away with the cash in five out of their last six home games against Michigan with the last two meetings going under the total.
We’ll call for Ohio State and under the total.
