NCAAF Picks: The Auburn Tigers enjoyed the blessings of Lady Luck smiling upon them last year with miracle wins that put them into the BCS National Championship Game. This year has been another story however as the Tigers have seen luck and betting value turn downwards and their always suspect defense cost them a shot at a repeat run to national championship glory. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the nation’s top team with an improved offense and a powerful defense but their name brand national status has made them into a consistent overlay and poor betting value.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will host the Auburn Tigers at Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 7:45 PM ET. Alabama opened as a nine point favorite.
Crimson Ink
Alabama is 10-1 straight up, 3-8 against the spread, and 4-6 under the total. The Tide is coming off a 48-14 win over Western Carolina in the type of game that should not be allowed to be scheduled. Alabama ranks 22nd overall in the nation as first year coordinator Lane Kiffin has done a solid job, particularly with QB Blake Sims. Sims has a 155.9 QB rating with a 20-4 TD-INT ratio.
War Eagle Descends
Auburn is 8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS, and 6-5 over the total after a 31-7 home win over Samford in the type of game that the Almighty SEC should be ashamed to have scheduled this late in the year. Auburn has failed to cover the spread in five out of their last six games and has lost their last two games against “real” teams. Auburn ranks 53rd for total defense and 77th against the pass.
Our Pick
Auburn defeated Alabama last year 34-28 in one of the most unforgettable games in college football history. The Powerful Tide now seeks revenge.
Auburn has been a solid betting value on the road as of late with seven payouts in their last 11 away games. Auburn has gone under the total in five out of their last seven away games.
Alabama has improved as a betting value at home despite their ultimate name brand status as a public betting favorite. The Tide has paid out in six out of their last 10 home games with just six out of their last 19 home games going over the total.
Alabama has covered the spread in two out of their last three meetings with Auburn with the last three Iron Bowl matchups going over the total. The Tide has paid out in three out of their last five home games against War Eagle with six out of the last seven Iron Bowl meetings at Bryant Denny Stadium going under the total.
We call for the Tide to Roll in revenge. Alabama and under is the call.
