NCAAF Picks: The Baylor Bears cannot take their foot off the gas as they are in a neck and neck race with the TCU Horned Frogs for the top spot in the Big 12 Conference and the Final Four playoff spot that could go with the league championship. The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a free fall as they have not been able to replace too many key players from their past contending teams.
The Baylor Bears will host the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday at McLane Stadium with coverage on FOX starting at 7:30 PM ET. Baylor opened as a 24.5-point favorite.
Cowboys Thrown from their High Horse
Oklahoma State is 5-5 straight up, 3-7 against the spread, and 5-5 on over under totals. The Pokes have lost four games in a row straight up and have failed to get the money in their last five games.
OSU is coming off a 28-7 home loss to Texas as backup QB Daxx Garman has proven to not be a capable replacement for the injured JW Walsh. Garman has a 12-12 TD-INT ratio. OSU ranks 96th nationally for total offense and 91st for scoring defense which is a scary stat heading into Baylor.
Bear Market
Baylor is 8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, and 5-4 over the total. The Bears are coming off a 48-14 payout at Oklahoma with a bye week that followed. Baylor ranks tops in the nation for scoring offense and a much improved 14th for total defense.
Matchup and Pick
Oklahoma State has seen quite a drop in board value in their road games as of late. The Cowboys have paid out in just four out of their last 15 away games with four out of their last seven away games going over the total.
Baylor has been one of the top wagering values in any sport when playing at home. The Bears have covered the spread in 15 out of their last 17 home games with just five out of their last 19 home games going under the total.
Oklahoma State, interestingly enough, has had the upper hand in this head to head series with Baylor. The Cowboys have covered the spread in 12 out of their last 15 games with Baylor with five out of the last seven meetings between the Bears and Cowboys going under the total. Baylor has, however, covered three out of their last five home games with Okie State with just one of those five games going over the total.
Baylor simply has far too much for the Pokes in this one including Final Four playoff aspirations and the need to “impress” the selection committee. The Bears record at home speaks for itself. Baylor is the call.
