NCAAF Picks: The improving Arkansas Razorbacks finally got the SEC win monkey off their back with an impressive and dominating 17-0 home payout against LSU in what head coach Brett Bielema calls “a beginning.” The Ole Miss Rebels and QB Bo Wallace have tailed off some after a hot start but are still mathematically in the SEC West Division race.
The Arkansas Razorbacks will host the Ole Miss Rebels at Donald W Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium on Saturday with coverage on CBS starting at 3:30 p.m. ET. Ole Miss opened as a three point favorite.
Hogging Cashier’s Cage
Arkansas is 5-5 straight up, 8-2 against the spread, and 6-4 over the total. The Hogs have paid out in their last three games and are 5-1 ATS at home. Arkansas ranks 22nd in the nation for rushing offense and their defense is vastly improved with national rankings of 23rd overall and 27th for points allowed. Quarterback Brandon Allen has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and the top three ball carriers are averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry. This is a team that is on the rise.
Fading Rebels
Ole Miss is 8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, and 2-7 under the total but has failed to get the money in their last three games. Ole Miss is coming off a bye week that followed a 48-0 home wins over Presbyterian as 50.5 point chalks which is indicative of the betting public flocking to them and the early season hype to deplete their betting value. Ole Miss ranks 41st for total offense but is the top team in the nation for scoring defense.
Our Pick
Ole Miss has improved as a road betting value with 10 payouts in their last 14 away games. The Rebels have gone under the total in 14 out of their last 17 away games.
Arkansas has begun to turn the tide with better wagering value at home. The Hogs have paid out in five out of their last six home games with six out of their last nine home games going over the total.
Arkansas has had the upper hand in their head to head series with Ole Miss with the Hogs paying out in nine out of their last 13 games against the Rebels. The Rebels and Razorbacks have gone over the total in just three out of their last 11 meetings. Arkansas has paid out in seven out of their last nine home games against Ole Miss with just one out of the last five meetings between the Hogs and Rebels at Arkansas going over the total.
Arkansas and under is the call.
