The depth of the two rosters, the preparedness of the two coaches, and the pressure each team will feel are all important keys to consider in this matchup between Miami and Louisville.
Miami Hurricanes @ Louisville Cardinals
Monday, September 1st – 8:05 PM ET
Odds: Louisville -3.5
Why Miami Can Cover The Spread
They are going up against a Louisville team that is taking a step up in terms of competing against a given level of talent. That same team is also facing a lot of pressure and an important injury issue. Louisville has been playing in the American Athletic Conference and, before that, the Big East. There were several games each season in which Louisville could coast, not playing its best but being able to win anyway. In its first season in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Louisville won’t be able to play average football and still win. Miami has athletes at running back, such as Duke Johnson, that will make Louisville pay for indifferent and unfocused tackling. Miami has linebackers that can flow to the ball, getting to the point of impact with quickness and showing a level of activity that the Cardinals probably didn’t face against the lesser defenses in the American Athletic Conference a year ago. Miami can play with a tempo that Louisville could find a little too uncomfortable for its liking.
Louisville will also be without star receiver DeVante Parker, who got injured under two weeks before the start of the season. Parker was the guy who was going to be Louisville’s deep threat, the man who could make leaping catches of high passes in traffic while also creating more room for other Louisville receivers in one-on-one situations. Louisville’s offense, without Parker, might not have enough proven weapons for brand-new quarterback Will Gardner to work with.
Why Louisville Can Cover The Spread
They are at home, and for all of their own concerns and shortcomings, they’re playing a Miami team that is playing a total novice at quarterback. Brad Kaaya was selected by Miami head coach Al Golden as the team’s starting quarterback for this game. Kaaya is a true freshman, and so with this game being a road game and a night game, Kaaya is going to be thrust into a very intimidating environment. That’s going to limit what Miami is likely to do. Kaaya is not a redshirt freshman, but a true freshman. He’s spent very little time within the program and is going to start his team’s season. That’s just not a recipe for success.
The other factor working in Louisville’s favor is that it is bringing back head coach Bobby Petrino, who had coached at the school several years ago before going to the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons and then leading Arkansas to the Sugar Bowl a few seasons ago before a scandal ended his career there and forced him to spend a season at Western Kentucky. Petrino is universally seen as a skilled coach. He is an offensive mastermind, and so if anyone can take a new quarterback such as Will Gardner and make something out of him in a season opener, Petrino can.
Outlook
If Gardner doesn’t collapse in this game and Louisville can generally minimize its amount of mistakes, Miami will have to find ways to score on its own, without benefit of turnovers. The Hurricanes would need long kick returns and other special teams plays to win. Without those types of plays, Louisville should win and cover.
Pick: Louisville -3.5
