NCAAF Picks: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish flirted with Final Four playoff contention but simply lacked the depth and quality starters to hang in the race for the long haul. Since their epic loss at Florida State the Irish have been in an alarming free fall. The Louisville Cardinals have a stout defense but an offense that has not been up to the standards of offensive mastermind Bobby Petrino. Petrino has had a solid “second coming” in his first season back at The Ville. Both the Irish and the Cardinals had opportunities for the ultimate upset win over defending national champion Florida State but could not close the deal.
The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame will host the Louisville Cardinals at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday with coverage on NBC starting at 3:30 PM ET. Notre Dame opened as a 4.5 point favorite.
Petrino Struggles to Jumpstart Offense
Louisville is 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, and 3-6-1 under the total. The Cardinals are coming off a bye that followed a 38-19 win at Boston College. The Cardinals still play a style reflective of previous head coach Charlie Strong as they rank fifth in the nation for total defense but 75th for total offense. Head coach Bobby Petrino is an offensive mastermind so improvement is coming but perhaps not until new recruiting classes arrive.
Irish Fade
Notre Dame is 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 on totals. The Irish are coming off a 43-40 home overtime loss to Northwestern for their third loss in four games and their fourth loss against the spread in their last five games. The Irish rank 28th overall in the nation for total offense but are slipping on that side of the ball with sloppy play and turnovers. QB Everett Golson has thrown 12 interceptions and is now questionable with a shoulder issue. Head coach Brian Kelly is catching heat for erratic play calling and for the turnovers as former QB and whipping boy Tommy Rees is no longer available to kick around anymore. Fans and handicappers are now questioning if Kelly is failing to coach ball protection effectively.
Our Pick
Louisville has been a solid betting value in road games with nine payouts in their last 12 away matchups. The Cardinals have gone under the total in eight out of their last 10 road matchups.
Notre Dame has been a subpar betting commodity at home with just seven payouts in their last 18 games at Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish have gone under the total in five out of their last seven home games.
Louisville is the call.
