The New England Patriots have made the last three editions of the AFC Championship Game. This franchise is relentlessly and excellently consistent, but it hasn’t been able to reel in the big prize in professional football, a Super Bowl title, since February of 2005 in Super Bowl XXXIX against the Philadelphia Eagles in Jacksonville, Fla. What will it take for the Patriots to take that next step and claim a fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy? The answer is more likely to come on defense than on offense.
Strengths
The Patriots’ offense should be in very good shape this season. The big key for the offense relative to the 2013 season is that Rob Gronkowski is feeling good, gaining strength, and is currently on track to play in the team’s regular season opener. Gronkowski was injured for almost all of last season, and that was the piece the Patriots so sorely needed in the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos. Gronkowski is a tight end, so he has a role to play as a blocker and as a possession receiver, but Gronkowski is and has been so much more than that. Following in the footsteps of great tight ends such as Brent Jones and Jay Novacek in the 1990s, and much like Jason Witten today, Gronkowski is a field-stretching tight end, a guy who runs routes like a receiver and can beat a linebacker well down the field on a 30-yard route. Gronkowski gave the Patriots and Tom Brady so many options over the course of a game. The Patriots love to throw short passes to the sides of the field, getting their running backs and slot receivers a lot of touches. Think of how the Patriots used Wes Welker before he went to the Denver Broncos, or Julian Edelman right now. Gronkowski could go down the middle third of the field and clear out the linebackers. With him in the lineup and healthy, New England should have an offense capable of going to the Super Bowl.
Weaknesses
The Patriots’ defense is what will have to get better in order for this team to reach all of its goals. The Patriots didn’t get blown out in the AFC title game against Denver, but they weren’t particularly close, either, and that’s because Aqib Talib was taken out of the game in the first half due to an injury suffered on a vicious hit by Welker, who was playing for the Broncos. The Patriots’ defense in that game was solid when Talib was on the field. When Talib left, on the other hand, the Broncos and Peyton Manning began to pick apart the Patriots’ other corners and their two safeties as well. Denver established the passing game and then was able to mix in the run. Talib is now with Denver, so the Patriots need leadership and improvement in the secondary. The back four in this defense must be ready when the playoffs come.
Schedule
The Patriots play the NFC North out of conference. They visit Green Bay and Minnesota while hosting Chicago and Detroit. If they can win at Green Bay, they can go 4-0 against the NFC North. The Patriots once again host Denver in the regular season, a consistent feature of regular season schedules with the two teams. That’s a game the Patriots need to win in the race for home-field advantage, which they did not get last year. The Patriots visit Kansas City but get to host Cincinnati. They do have to visit Indianapolis and San Diego in what is a very challenging schedule.
Outlook
The Patriots’ offense should be excellent this season. Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and San Diego look like losses, but Denver at home is a game the Patriots are probably going to win. This team will win at least 11 games, very possibly 12.
Pick: Over 10.5
