NFL Futures: In this era of salary cap parity, the one team that has consistently been a top shelf contender has been the New England Patriots, who are among the most effective and successful organizations in all of sports. But it must be stated that despite their sustained success and post season appearances, the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season. It is hard to believe but Tom Brady will turn 37 years old before opening day and at some point Father Time does catch up with all players. The question is if Brady can stave off age for another run at glory and if Bill Belichick can push the Pats to one more Super Bowl title. The Patriots opened as a 3/1 choice to win the AFC championship and were at 9/1 to win the Super Bowl. New England opened with an over under win total of 11 at -115 over and -115 under.
Weak Division
The good news for Patriots fans is that their team plays in a relatively weak AFC East Division with such mediocrities as the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills which makes for little resistance in winning the division and making the playoffs.
Handicapper’s Notes
New England has paid out against the spread in just two out of their last 11 away games with eight out of their last 20 away games going under the total. The Patriots have covered the spread in 11 out of their last 15 games at home in Gillette Stadium with just five out of their last 18 home games going under the total. The Patriots have proven to be a dangerous and valuable underdog with 13 payouts in their last 19 games when getting points as just eight out of their last 19 games as a dog have gone under the total. The Patriots have lost just seven out of their last 16 games as a favorite with eight out of their last nine games as a chalk going over the total.
Our Prognosis
Handicappers should be cautious with the Patriots as they are one of the more public teams on the board in any sport. Although they have held their value on the betting board relatively well that is also a reason to make sure to get full value and avoid overlays, much like not paying too much for a hot stock.
