With so much science, and the misapplication thereof, dominating the NFL news cycle this week, I thought I’d come at January’s Mock Draft with some experiments in mind. So, as not to spoil anything, we’re getting right to the picks in our NFL Mock Draft 2.0.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
In my last mock draft, I had Marcus Mariota going to the Bucs and, frankly, he still should. But a lot of things can happen from the end of the NCAA football season and the draft. Namely the NFL combine, Pro Days and pundits and scouts trying every way they can to outsmart themselves into making a dumb pick. Jameis Winston is a dumb pick. But Winston to the Buccaneers could easily happen for plenty of reasons.
First, he’s going to kill it on his Pro Day and at the NFL combine if he decides to participate. He’ll make every throw that the NFL scouts want to see and will make it look easy. Second, they’ll look at his record as a starter at Florida State and that record is 27-1, one national title, one Heisman Trophy and a 2013 season where he threw 40 TDs and 10 picks. Third, he played his college ball in Florida and is still a beloved sports figure there and will have that oversized mini-golf course Tampa Bay calls a stadium filled up on opening day.
If Winston wasn’t a confirmed moron off the field, the Bucs would be fools not to take him. There’s a good chance after all the offseason work and scouting, they’ll go ahead and make that call. And with Winston going No. 1, lots of things change in the draft.
2. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
With memories of Vince Young’s flame out still fresh, there’s no way the Titans would take the “troubled” Winston and his baggage if he fell to them at No. 2., especially with the NFL’s new conduct policy and the example that Johnny Manziel set in Cleveland last season. Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt knows what a real quarterback should look like and act like, he coached one of the best of all time in Kurt Warner.
Tennessee still likes Zach Mettenberger, who they picked up last season in the 6th round and they’re prepared to go to war with him and Charlie Whitehurst as their QBs if they have to. If the Bucs take Winston, they won’t have to.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
It appeared the Jaguars late-season success should have cost them the best wide receiver in this draft, but all the bottom teams decided to pick up a few wins before business closed in Week 17, setting Cooper right back into their laps.
Cooper to the Jags is as good a locked pick as you’re going to get in this draft. This is happening.
4. Oakland Raiders – Leonard Williams, DT, USC
After picking up Khalil Mack, the best outside linebacker in last year’s draft, Jack Del Rio gets to add the best defensive tackle in this year’s draft. No way Williams gets past the Raiders, if he even lasts this long.
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. Washington Redskins – Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
New Redskins defensive coordinator Joe Barry gets a brand new toy in the 6 ft. 6 in., 240-pound Gregory. Washington was near the bottom in every statistical defensive category last season and Gregory is the first step in fixing that.
6. New York Jets – Dante Fowler Jr, OLB, Florida
With the hiring of Todd Bowles, I’m not sure if the Jets would take Winston at No. 6 like I predicted in my first mock draft. Bowles will want to build a defense first. Since he’ll be converting to the 3-4, he’ll need an outisde linebacker that can also play like a defensive end and nobody did that better in college football than Fowler.
At 6 ft. 2in., 261 pounds Fowler reminds me of a young James Harrison, but he’ll be better in pass coverage if Bowles wants to use him that way. Otherwise, he’ll be living in opposing team’s backfields all next season. Not only is Fowler the perfect fit for the Jets, if they take him he’ll be a contender for defensive rookie of the year.
7. Chicago Bears – Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
John Fox comes to a team already loaded on offense, but in need of defensive help. With the hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator, the Bears will convert to a 3-4 defense and don’t really have the defensive ends for it. Likely Jared Allen will be converted to an outside linebacker in the defense and the Bears needed an upgrade over right DE David Bass anyway.
It’s a toss-up between Ray and Randy Gregory for the best pass rusher in this draft and either guy will work for the Bears.
Of all the problems the Bears have, the defense is about eight of them. The Bears are loaded on offense and they’re not going to draft a quarterback, regardless of what happens with Jay Cutler. So Ray remains their guy. Ray led the SEC with 13.5 sacks and 20.5 tackles for a loss and has faced nothing but NFL-level competition for the last two seasons. He’s a day-one starter for any team that drafts him.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Dan Quinn getting the head coaching job in Atlanta is the worst-kept secret in the NFL outside of how Tom Brady likes his balls rubbed. Like Chicago, the Falcons already have an offense together, but they need an overhaul on defense. Shelton runs a 4-3 and when you’re building that defense, you start with your defensive tackles. Shelton will be a pretty good one.
9. New York Giants – Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
No change in this pick from my first mock draft. The Giants had a strong offensive showing and with Victor Cruz returning, will be better than fine at their skill positions. Eli Manning was sacked way too many times last season and Scherff will do a lot to fix that.
10. St. Louis Rams – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Back-to-back tackles coming off the board, with the Rams grabbing the Stanford starter to bookend with Greg Robinson or Joe Barksdale on the line. There’s little doubt the Rams will cut ties with Jake Long after two mediocre season. With Robinson, Barksdale, Roger Saffold and Peat, the Rams could be just a player away from one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
The Vikings could go with a running back here if they cut ties with Adrian Peterson (I think they will), but they have a bigger need at wide receiver. White will team up with Greg Jennings to give Teddy Bridgwater two legit targets in the passing game. Add in Cordarelle Patterson and the Vikings offense suddenly becomes potent.
12. Cleveland Browns – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Josh Gordon is a lost cause. They have to get a wide receiver in this draft, if not two. Parker wins the lottery this time, but it’s hard to tell how productive he’ll be with Johnny Manziel tossing balls in the dirt at his feet.
13. New Orleans Saints – Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky
The Saints need another pass rusher after finishing 25th in the league in sacks last season. I’m still not sure Rob Ryan will make it to training camp as the Saints’ defensive coordinator and, if they fire him, they may change systems. Either way, Dupree fits the bill for them.
14. Miami Dolphins – T.J. Clemmings, OT, LSU
The Dolphins have already built a decent offensive line, but starting right tackle Dallas Thomas struggled last season after being moved back and forth between tackle and guard. It might be the time to move Thomas inside for good and let Clemmings take over outside.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
NaVarro Bowman missed the entire 2014 season and Patrick Willis missed most of it. The 49ers have to add a guy that can pick up that slack if either guy struggles with injuries again in 2015 and Beasley is the best OLB on the board here.
16. Houston Texans – Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
If the Texans re-sign Ryan Mallet, and they probably will, they’ll be out of any quarterback market come draft day. What they need, especially when facing passers like Andrew Luck twice a season, is a good safety and Collins is the best one in the draft.
17. San Diego Chargers – La’el Collins, OT, LSU
The Chargers wilted late in the season and a big reason was pressure on Philip Rivers. Collins will help shore up a line on a team that isn’t that far off from another playoff berth and potentially more.
18. Kansas City Chiefs – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Chiefs need a corner, but depending on the prognosis of Eric Berry over the offseason, they may look at safety here instead. Waynes, at 6-1, 183 has the length to play with the receivers in the NFC west and isn’t afraid to deliver a hit in the secondary.
19. Cleveland Browns – (from Buffalo) Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
Green-Beckham never played a down of football in 2014, but it doesn’t matter. He was a touchdown machine in 2013, scoring 12 to go with his 883 yards. At 6 ft. 6in., 225 pounds Green-Beckham is a speciman who can ran a 4.43 while being recruited out of high school. If he lays down a 40 time like that (or better) at the combine, he may not last to 19. Yes, I have the Browns taking two wideouts in this draft. But how could they pass up these guys? If you really want to give Manziel a shot, give him the tools he needs to work with.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
There’s rumors that the Eagles are trying to figure out a way to get high enough to take Chip Kelly’s former Oregon QB, Marcus Mariota, in this draft. I don’t see how they could realistically do it. Not that teams won’t be willing to make a deal, but the Eagles will have to give up high-value picks and players just to move up to striking distance to the top two picks. Then, it’ll take an RG III-style megadeal to get one of those.
Better to just stay put and take Hundley when he falls to you. He’s a day-one starter and, if you keep the rest of your picks, you can continue adding tools around him.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
The Bengals need to upgrade a few positions, but mostly in their back eight on defense. Yes, as always they need to be searching hard for a replacement for Andy Dalton, but the only real quarterback left is Bryce Petty and this is way too early to take him. Take Thompson, improve your defense, and look for a steal later. Hey, Russell Wilson was a third round pick.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cody Prewitt, FS, Ole Miss
The Troy Polamalu era is coming to an end and it’s time to find a guy to step into his fright wig. Prewitt is a different kind of safety than Polamalu at 6 ft. 2in., 212 pounds and he brings a load when he hits people, recording 71 tackles last season to go with his SEC-leading six picks and two forced fumbles.
23. Detroit Lions – Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
Ndamukong Suh is already history, so let him go break some other team’s salary cap, Detroit. Goldman isn’t Suh, but he’s solid and, with your offense, that should be plenty good enough.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
As good as the Cardinals defense was last season, I don’t see them making any wholesale scheme changes, regardless of who takes over at defensive coordinator. Larry Foote is about to play his 14th season, so his odometer has got to be pretty high. Kevin Minter started just five games last season. McKinney is a real need for the Cardinals and should be there at 24.
25. Carolina Panthers – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
Journeyman tackle Mike Remmers played well in the final stretch for Carolina, but he’s a better back-up than a starter. Carolina needs to think long term and Flowers should could hold down either tackle spot for the next 12 years.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Depth at corner cost the Ravens last season maybe as much as the Patriots deflated footballs. There’s no way they don’t take multiple defensive backs in this draft and it all starts with the 6 ft., 198 pound Peters.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
The Cowboys need a corner, but if they can’t work out a deal with free agent DeMarco Murray, then they need to grab either Gordon or Todd Gurley in this draft.
28. Denver Broncos – Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
With Wade Phillips returning to the Broncos as defensive coordinator, a move to a 3-4 is inevitable and the team will need the inside linebackers to make it happen. Kendricks is the next best option after McKinney is off the board.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
The Trent Richardson trade turned out to be a bust and Daniel Herron looks like a back up running back to me. The Colts could look at an easy offseason trade, offering the Rams a third rounder for Zac Stacy, but Todd Gurley is a freak playmaker. If he hadn’t injured his knee he would already be gone at this point, but the Colts can afford to wait until he’s fully healthy to add him to an already potent offense.
30. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
The Packers have been playing with scrubs at nose tackle for years, plugging other team’s cast-offs into that hole and hoping he can just take up space. Last year’s starter Letroy Guion was just that. Guion wasn’t terrible, but it’s time to take the position seriously. Phillips will be more than just a body. He’ll be a difference-maker.
31. New England Patriots – This Space is Intentionally Left Blank
And it’s left blank because I have no doubt the Patriots will lose this pick once the DeflateGate “investigation” ends after the Super Bowl. They’re guilty. All of science, recorded history and experience tells us they’re guilty. Goodell doesn’t have the guts to punish them before the Super Bowl, but the guillotine is coming soon after. This will be one of the heads to fall.
32. Seattle Seahawks – Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
And because of that the receiver, Strong, that they probably would have taken will go to Seattle. The Seahawks’ WR corps has overachieved all year and Jermaine Kearse is a budding star, but they need another guy so Doug Baldwin can stay in the slot where he belongs. Strong gives Russell Wilson a 6 ft. 3 in. passing target that has lived in the end zone for Arizona State the last two seasons.
