NFL Picks: The Buffalo Bills have been a pesky team more often than not so far this season and have been at their best as a betting value on the road. The Miami Dolphins have been something of a tease that has made bettors weary of going “all in” with them. Miami has shown improvement as of late but is yet to prove that they can sustain success.
The Miami Dolphins will host the Buffalo Bills at Sun Life Stadium on Thursday night with coverage on NFLN starting at 8:25 PM ET. Miami opened as a five point favorite with a total of 42.
Paying Hotel Bills
Buffalo is 5-4 straight up, 4-5 against the spread, and 2-7 under the total. The Bills have paid out in three out of four road games this season. Buffalo is coming off a 17-13 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs as two point favorites. Defense is the strength of the Bills as they rank sixth overall in the NFL. The offense on the other hand is a problem and ranks 23rd overall. Kyle Orton has been an upgrade since taking over at QB with a ranking of 98.4 with a 10-to-3 TD-INT ratio.
Fish Inconsistent
Miami is 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 4-5 under the total. The Dolphins are coming off a 20-16 loss at Detroit which snapped a three game winning streak. Miami also plays good defense ranking fourth overall and fifth for points allowed. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has continued his up and down ways with an 89.7 QB rating and a 15-to-7 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
Buffalo has improved as a road value and has paid out in four out of their last six away games . Buffalo has gone under the total in five out of their last eight away games.
Miami has come away with the money in nine out of their last 14 home games with six out of their last nine home games going under the total.
Buffalo has been a strong board value in their head to head series with Miami. The Bills have paid out in 13 out of their last 20 games against the Dolphins including four out of the most recent five meetings. Buffalo and Miami have gone under the total in seven out of their last nine games. The Bills have come away with the money in six out of their last 10 visits to Miami with six out of their last eight road games against the Dolphins going under the total.
We like the fight and character of the Bills in road games and the fact that the betting public is never enamored with them on the road. We’ll call for Buffalo and under in this one.
