NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers demonstrated his MVP credentials last week as he bailed the Pack out with a game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds at Miami last week. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, have shown an alarming drop on defense after being dominant on that side of the line last year. Fortunately for them they are in the weak NFC South and are still the top team in that division.
The Green Bay Packers will host the Carolina Panthers at Lambeau Field on Sunday with coverage on FOX starting at 1 PM ET. Green Bay opened as a seven point favorite with the total at 49.
Carolina Loses Edge
The Panthers are 3-2-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread, and 4-2 over the total after a 37-37 tie at Cincinnati last week which was the fourth consecutive week in which they went over the total. The defense ranks a poor 26th overall in the NFL and 24th for points allowed. Cam Newton has been the top player on the team with a 92.3 QB rating, a 7-2 TD-INT ratio, and the top ball carrier with a 4.8 yards per carry average.
Pack Roars Back
Green Bay is 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, and 5-1 over the total after their 27-24 win at Miami which kept the Pack tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. Green Bay has the metrics of a team facing problems however as they rank 26th in the NFL for overall offense and 19th for total defense but with Rodgers they have a true difference maker as he has a 111.4 QB rating with a sparking 15-1 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
Carolina has been a poor betting value in road games recently with just three payouts in their last nine away matchups as six out of those nine road tilts went under the total. After ranking as one of the top betting values in all of sports as a home team that success has begun to erode for Green Bay as they have covered the spread in just two out of their last nine games at Lambeau Field with four out of their last six home games going over the total.
Carolina has come away with the money in their last two meetings with Green Bay but had lost the prior three meetings before that against the spread as the last four matchups between the Panthers and Packers have gone over the total. We’ll call for this one to go over the total of 49 points.
