It’s the game I expected to be last season’s NFC Championship, only to see Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers ruin everything. Instead, Sunday afternoon will our first chance to watch Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys (5-3) take on Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons (4-4) inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The game will be broadcast for your enjoyment on your local FOX affiliate at 4:25 p.m. EST.
The Game: Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
O/U: 48.5
The History
The Cowboys and Falcons have played 26 times since 1966 with Dallas holding a 16-10 advantage in the all time series.
They last faced off on September 27, 2015 with Atlanta winning 39-28 at AT&T Stadium. Matt Ryan out-dueled Brandon Weedon with a 24 of 36 for 285 yards and two touchdown performance. Weedon was Weedon so, yeah, he threw an interception.
DALLAS COWBOYS (5-3)
The Ezekiel Elliott absence officially begins for the Cowboys in this game. That effectively removes 993 total yards and nine touchdowns out of Dallas’ offense. What are they going to do? Nothing different. Alfred Morris moves up to the starter with Elliott out and Darren McFadden as his back up. Rookie Rod Smith will play more too, but there’ll be no fundamental change in the way the Cowboys run their offense. What they’ll be without is Elliott’s ability to bust big plays.
Now the big plays will have to come solely from quarterback Dak Prescott and the passing game. How many they can reel off will have a lot to do with the health of Dez Bryant Sunday. Bryant was held out of practice for most of the week with an injured ankle. He did go Friday and I expect him to play.
The Cowboys will have play without offensive tackle Tyron Smith. Smith is dealing with a back injury and groin injury and didn’t practice this week. Geoff Swain, Chidobe Awuzie and Dan Bailey will all stay in street clothes too.
Last week against a much better Kansas City Chiefs defense, Prescott was 21 of 33 for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He spread the ball around to five different receivers with Terrence Williams getting nine catches for 141 yards. Cole Beasley caught four for 24 yards and two touchdowns.
Defensively the Cowboys sacked Alex Smith twice, picked him off once (his first interception all season) and got five stops in the Chiefs’ backfield. They were the first team to hold rookie running back Kareem Hunt under 100 total yards this season.
ATLANTA FALCONS (4-4)
Atlanta’s injury report is clear with the exception of outside linebacker Duke Riley. He’ll miss another week with a knee. Everybody else practiced and should suit up including Julio Jones and Matt Bryant, who were held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday.
Last Sunday the Falcons were gashed by the Carolina Panthers in a 20-17 loss. The Panthers rushed for 201 yards and two touchdowns with six different guys doing the work on the ground. Atlanta didn’t give up a lot of pass yards, just 137, but it was more than enough considering they let Carolina control the clock for 32:52.
Matt Ryan had a better game, going 24 of 38 for 313 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He can’t seem to keep from throwing the ball to the other team this season. Ryan has tossed seven picks in 2017, the same number he threw all of last year.
I ask this question every week and will again, how does offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian still have a job? This was the most prolific offense in the NFL last year. This season they’ve only scored 30 or more points twice. They’ve scored less than 20 four times.
The Pick
This line has moved half a point higher since it was first released earlier in the week. I think that’s insane. Even with Elliott being out, I don’t expect this game to be close. Atlanta’s hangover is only going to get worse and Dallas still has its eyes set on a division title and first round bye. Cowboys 38, Falcons 27
This week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 1-0
Last week
Straight up: 9-4
Against the spread: 11-2
Season
Straight up: 78-54
Against the spread: 69-62
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