Don’t call it a comeback, as L.L. Cool J once screamed into a dangling microphone. Just call it a righting of the ship. I had a solidly dominant week with my NFL picks, putting a lackluster Week 11 behind me. With five weeks to go, I’m solidly on my way to the upper echelon of the pick-o-sphere both straight up and against the spread.
Here’s how things look.
This week
Straight up: 11-5
Against the spread: 10-6
Last week
Straight up: 6-8
Against the spread: 5-9
Season
Straight up: 104-72
Against the spread: 91-85
My best pick of the week unquestionably was the Pittsburgh Steelers winning but not covering against the Green Bay Packers. That was a huge, two touchdown spread and if I know anything, it’s that Pittsburgh will play down to its opponent. Brett Hundley had a solid bounce back game and once again showed teams they might want to think about signing him to an affordable free agent contract to compete for a starting job come next season. More importantly, I nailed that pick. High five, me.
I get at least half credit for knowing the Kansas City Chiefs wouldn’t cover against the Buffalo Bills. What no one could expect is that the Chiefs would just lay over and die so completely. That’s five losses in their last six games now and two of them at home. Pathetic.
My worst picks were all on Thanksgiving, giving me absolutely nothing at all to be thankful for. I continued to stupidly pick against the Minnesota Vikings and they continued to feed it to me sideways. My love affair with the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott should have come to an abrupt end with an ugly loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, but I have a feeling I’m still an idiot. We’ll find out when I make the picks this week.
As always, the most important way to judge my picks is against my peers. Mike Clay of ESPN led a slew of guys who went 14-2 this week, so they can all team up and suck it. The worst week belonged to Josh Hill of Fansided who went 9-7.
For the season, I’m right in the middle of the pack, which I hate. It’s time to kick it up a notch here in the final stretch.
Against the spread, the best weeks belonged to Nora Princiotti of the Boston Globe, Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post and Jared Dubin of CBS who all went 12-4. Overall, I’m tied for No. 4 overall in the nation in picks against the spread. So let’s keep that up, me.
EARLY NFL WEEK 13 LINES
Thursday
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-1), O/U: 44.5
Sunday
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3), O/U: 47.5
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3), O/U: 40.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+8.5), O/U: 48.5
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3), O/U: 41.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (N/A), O/U: N/A
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5), O/U: 41.0
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (+1), O/U: 38.5
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (+3.5), O/U: 44.0
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5), O/U: 43.0
Sunday Late
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-14), O/U: 42.0
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4), O/U: 48.0
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+7), O/U: 45.0
New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-7), O/U: 42.0
Sunday Night
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+6), O/U: 47.5
Monday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+5), O/U: 43.5
What pops out from this group of games? That Bills -8.5 against the Patriots is sitting there pretty fat. The Bills played exceptionally well last week and the Patriots are due for a stumble before they face off with the Steelers. It’s something to think about. The 49ers getting three points against the Bears with Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start is a game to keep an eye on too.
Last year the Chargers were the team that kept the Browns from finishing 0-16. Are they feeling generous again? The sportsbooks don’t seem to think so with that -14 spread. The Raiders getting -7 when it was just announced Geno Smith would be getting the start for the Giants will change. I mean, if you like the Raiders there, you better jump now.
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY…
In the AFC, the Steelers (9-2) are still the one seed and the Patriots (9-2) are the two. The Titans (7-4) have taken over the three seed and the Chiefs (6-5) are just barely hanging on to the four. Your Wild Cards are currently the Jaguars (7-4) and the Ravens (6-5).
The Bills (6-5), Bengals (5-6), Chargers (5-6) and Raiders (5-6) all still have a realistic shot.
As for the NFC, the No. 1 seed belongs to the Eagles (10-1) and the Vikings (9-2) are the two. The Rams (8-3), by virtue of their win over the Saints (8-3) took over the No. 3 spot and the Saints dropped to the four. The Wild Cards are currently the Panthers (8-3) and the Falcons (7-4).
The Seahawks (7-4) and Lions (6-5) have the best chance to break up the party. The Cowboys (5-6), Redskins (5-6), Packers (5-6) and Cardinals (5-6) are all still in the mix, but the Week 13 schedule will clear a lot of that up.
OUR CURRENT DRAFT ORDER…
Not every team has its sites set on the postseason. Some of them are already making their off-season plans. Here’s the current squads that hold the Top 10 picks in the April, 2018 NFL Draft.
1. Cleveland Browns (0-11)
2. San Francisco 49ers (1-10)
3. New York Giants (2-9)
4. Indianapolis Colts (3-8)
5. Denver Broncos (3-8)
6. Chicago Bears (3-8)
7. New York Jets (4-7)
8. Cleveland Browns (from the Texans [4-7])
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
10. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
COACH INEPTITUDE RANKINGS
Lastly, we finish up by listing the Top Five NFL head coaches that should be looking for new employment next season. For some reason there’s a lot of overlap between these head coaches and the teams listed above atop the NFL draft rankings. Hmm.
1. Ben McAdoo
2. Chuck Pagano
3. Hue Jackson
4. Dirk Koetter
5. Vance Joseph
Of those five guys, only Joseph is safe until next season. I can imagine that Broncos general manager John Elway will be very involved in upgrading the offense over the break and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Manning wearing a Broncos jersey.
McAdoo is at least safe until the end of the season. My guess is Pagano and Jackson are too. Koetter could be fired at any time, but if the team continues to lose once Jameis Winston is back, the ax could fall quickly.
Other guys not on this list who could find themselves in the bread line at the end of the year; Marvin Lewis, John Fox, Jay Gruden and Bruce Arians. Arians and Lewis, at least, will probably get to retire.
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