Can the Buffalo Bills (2-1) shock the world for the second week in a row? The Atlanta Falcons (3-0) will try to keep our Week Four predictable when they host the Bills inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium Sunday.
The game is set for 1 p.m. EST and will be broadcast on CBS.
The Game: Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8)
O/U: 48.5
The History
Considering how weird this match up looks to begin with, it won’t surprise you to learn the two teams have met up just 11 times since their first game in 1973. The Falcons lead the all time series 7-4.
They last played on December, 1, 2013 with the Falcons winning 34-31 in overtime. Matt Ryan completed 28 of 47 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown, besting Buffalo starter E.J. Manuel who was 18 of 32 for 210 yards and a TD.
BUFFALO BILLS (2-1)
The Bills benefited from the Trevor Siemian road show last week and, in doing so, likely solidified Sean McDermott’s position as its head coach. It’s never to early in a career to put together a signature win.
Tyrod Taylor had his best game of the young season, completing 20 of 26 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns against what was supposed to be an elite defense. The Denver Broncos loaded up against the run to stop LeSean McCoy and they did, holding him to just 21 yards on 14 carries. They never thought Taylor would beat them. Hell, no one did.
What does this mean against the Falcons? It’s tough to say. Week Three, in a lot of ways, was so nutty that it would be smart to ignore it completely. If the Bills and Broncos played 10 games, I have to believe Denver would win nine of them, so this was the 10 percenter. The dentist that recommends sugary gum, if you will.
Taylor will have to be just as good against the Falcons for the Bills to have a chance. More than that, the defense will have to pressure Matt Ryan continuously and keep Devonta Freeman from running all over them. They should get Marcell Dareus back this week and Shaq Lawson should play too. On offense, Cordy Glenn looks like he’ll be held out again with an ankle injury.
ATLANTA FALCONS (3-0)
You can say the Falcons had luck in their 30-26 victory over the Detroit Lions last Sunday and you wouldn’t be wrong. But luck has a lot to do with winning championships and this was a team with plenty of baggage left over from blowing its chances at a Super Bowl 51 title. It could be that winning a game they should have lost, especially with Matt Ryan throwing three picks and one returned for a touchdown, could shake that hangover for good.
Steering clear of the “let down game” against a lesser opponent will be a good sign that the Falcons have really exorcised their demons. They have a chance here to go into their bye at 4-0 and can do it at their nifty, new stadium.
With Vic Beasley Jr. and Courtney Upshaw still out, the pass rush falls on rookie Takkarist McKinley and Adrian Clayborn. Both produced a sack last week and, in spite of what you would think when dealing with a mobile quarterback like Taylor, he gets sacked a ton. McKinley could be in for a breakout game Sunday.
Can this Falcons team stop the run and force Taylor to once again carry the load? I don’t see that happening. What’s more likely the case is that Atlanta jumps ahead early and the Bills have to abandon the rush game to try to get back in it.
The Pick
As we saw in Thursday night’s game, Week Three might just turn out to be an abberation. There’s no reason to believe the Bills can come into Atlanta and even keep this game close. Buffalo will be without its best offensive lineman and has no one in the defensive backfield that can cover Julio Jones. Look for him to have a big day and for Ryan to bounce back from his three pick performance. Falcons 37, Bills 17
This week
Straight up: 1-0
Against the spread: 1-0
Last week
Straight up: 7-9
Against the spread: 6-10
Season
Straight up: 28-19
Against the spread: 22-25
To make a wager on any sport, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
