It was another strong week for your humble NFL handicapper, with a solid performance both straight up and against the spread.
Here’s how I did over the weekend and where I stand for the season.
This week
Straight up: 9-4
Against the spread: 11-2
Last week
Straight up: 9-4
Against the spread: 8-5
Season
Straight up: 78-54
Against the spread: 69-62
My best pick of the weekend was the Carolina Panthers knocking off the Atlanta Falcons in Charlotte. Everything looked bleak for the Panthers after a sucky 17-3 loss to the Chicago Bears the week before. They even traded away their second best offensive player. Still, they were playing the hungover Falcons and I think they’re about to crash completely.
My scoff at that touchdown spread for the Seattle Seahawks vs the Washington Redskins paid off in my against the spread picks.
The biggest surprise? Mike Mularkey leading the Tennessee Titans to a third consecutive win, something his sorry ass has never done as an NFL head coach. I still got that one against the spread, but I’m pissed at Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh that they couldn’t get it done.
My worst pick happened last Thursday night as I finally put some faith in the Buffalo Bills only to see them shit their depends against the New York Jets in a 34-21 loss that wasn’t that close. I may never pick the Bills correctly this season, but like The Who said, I won’t be fooled again.
EARLY WEEK 10 NFL LINES
Thursday
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6), O/U: 41.5
Sunday
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5), O/U: 46.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5), O/U: 38.5
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-12.5), O/U: 43.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10), O/U: 43.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4), O/U: 41.0
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5), O/U: 41.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5), O/U: 40.5
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+1.5), O/U: 42.5
Sunday Late
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-12), O/U: 46.5
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3), O/U: 50.5
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (+1), O/U: 42.5
Sunday Night
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5), O/U: 46.5
Monday Night
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9), O/U: 39.5
Byes: Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens
There are some monster lines this week, with three double digit spreads. The Lions are 12.5 point favorites over the Browns, the Steelers are a 10 point favorite over the Colts and the Rams are 12 point favorites over the Deshaun Watson-less Texans.
The most intriguing line is the Falcons -3 over the Cowboys. That looks like some easy money right there. The Titans, going for their fourth win in a row under Mularkey, are -4.5 points against the Bengals.
Don’t be too quick to take the Patriots at -7.5. The last time Brock Osweiler faced off against New England and Tom Brady he beat them. It was a win that put Denver on the path to home field advantage in 2015 and led to a Super Bowl 50 title.
KEY WEEK NINE NFL INJURIES
We start this week with the biggest loss, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston’s shoulder has been bothering him for the last few weeks and after taking a significant hit in their 30-10 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Winston was sent to the sidelines.
There he will stay for at least the rest of the month as he rehabs his shoulder. In his place we’ll see Ryan Fitzpatrick, the NFL’s very own quarterback Grim Reaper. It seems whichever team signs the former Harvard quarterback will invariably have to start him when their No. 1 quarterback goes down. He’s like the Madden Curse, but no one has any fun when he’s inserted into the system.
Winston has been dealing with an AC joint sprain since the Bucs game against the Arizona Cardinals on October 15. Winston has completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,920 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.
Fitzpatrick started 11 games for the New York Jets last year and played in 14. He went 3-8 as a starter, completing 56.65 percent of his passes for 2,710 yards, 12 touchdowns and 17 picks.
While shelving Winston for the interim is obviously the best move for the third year quarterback, it might not be the best for embattled head coach Dirk Koetter. Koetter is unquestionably on the hot seat this season I think he’s going to be fired for sure. The fact that he made this call for Winston’s future health in spite of his own job prospects says a lot about Koetter as a human being. Good for him.
The Dallas Cowboys were hit with three big injuries in their 28-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon. Dez Bryant rolled his ankle and didn’t return to the game. Bryant told reporters his knee and ankle or fine and he expects to play this weekend.
Bryant’s opposite side, Terrance Williams, suffered the same injury and also didn’t come back into the game. He too got lucky and didn’t seem to do anything but minor damage. He expects to play this Sunday as well.
Bryant has 38 catches for 439 yards and four touchdowns this season. Williams has caught 30 balls for 357 yards and no touchdowns.
Offensive tackle Tyron Smith left the game with a groin injury and the Cowboys haven’t released his status yet. Smith has been playing with a sore back all season, so there’s a chance he could sit out, though I don’t expect him to miss Sunday’s game against the Falcons.
The Cowboys did get some bad news on defensive tackle Brian Price. Price was Dallas’ No. 3 tackle in their rotation. He sprained his MCL and dislocated is patella tendon. He’ll be out for a while. Price has played in all eight games for the Cowboys and recorded eight tackles and a pass defense.
New Orleans Saints offensive tackle Terron Armstead left their game against the Bucs with a chest injury. He was supposed to have an MRI on it Monday and the Saints didn’t release any information on it. They did, however, immediately sign offensive tackle Bryce Harris off waivers from the San Francisco 49ers. So that’s suspicious.
Hopefully if it was something really serious, New Orleans would have made some kind of announcement. It’s entirely possible they’re just being safe in signing Harris and Armstead misses a week.
The Saints also lost safety Kenny Vaccaro in the game with a groin injury. Vaccaro was having a career season and will likely be day to day with the injury. Chris Banjo entered the game in his place and wasn’t terrible. Vaccaro has 38 tackles this season, half a sack, seven passes defended, one fumble recovery, three interceptions and one defensive touchdown.
Banjo has played in every game, recording one tackle and one fumble recovery this season.
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