The return of forward Serge Ibaka has put the Oklahoma City Thunder in the driver’s seat. What had once been a 2-0 series for San Antonio with little hope for the Thunder has, with Ibaka’s arrival, become an entirely different proposition. The Thunder have dominated and dictated the matchups. They’ve played with more energy. They’ve gone from being a helpless defensive team to a dominant one. San Antonio has to find a way to get more scoring from all of its key players. If it doesn’t, the Spurs are going to find themselves in a very familiar place.
Why The Thunder Can Win:
They are dominating this matchup right now. Serge Ibaka is making all the difference in the world for the Thunder. Ibaka is the rim protector who has great leaping ability and knows how to block shots. He’s long, and he’s intimidating. He makes Tim Duncan look really slow, and he can also help out on offense with a mid-range jumper and a knack for plucking offensive rebounds. Everything Ibaka has done has changed the way this series has been played. The Spurs have had absolutely no answers for Oklahoma City. San Antonio did whatever it wanted in the first two games without Ibaka, but ever since the forward’s surprising bounce-back from a calf injury, everything has been reversed.
Oklahoma City is extremely confident right now. Russell Westbrook is the best player in the series, with Ibaka being the most important player in the series. Kevin Durant almost feels like a third wheel, and yet he was really good in Game 4, as the Thunder tied the series, 2-2. It’s San Antonio which has to make adjustments, and why would anyone really trust the Spurs after looking fragile, old and helpless the past two games?
Why The Spurs Can Win:
They are playing at home and know how important this game is to their season. The Spurs remember what happened two years ago, in 2012, when they took a 2-0 lead over the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals but then lost four straight games to lose the series, 4-2. The Spurs had home-court advantage in that series, too. They lost Games 3 and 4 in Oklahoma City. Then they came home for Game 5 in San Antonio. That was the game the Spurs had to win to regain control of the series and ensure that at the worst, they would still get to play a Game 7 in San Antonio. The Spurs just wanted to avoid their one nightmare scenario: having to win a Game 6 on the road in Oklahoma City just to stay alive and avoid elimination. San Antonio lost that Game 5 in 2012, and the Thunder finished off the Spurs at home in Game 6, two days later.
That whole scenario is staring San Antonio in the face once again, and the Spurs, knowing how much it hurt to lose to the Thunder two years ago, are going to be desperate and committed in their attempt to avoid what happened in 2012. The Spurs’ level of motivation is going to be off the charts. You’re going to see a very different team in Game 5.
Outlook
This is a very, very tough game to pick, but the Thunder, with Ibaka, are just better than the Spurs. They can neutralize the Spurs’ strengths, and as long as San Antonio doesn’t shoot the lights out from three-point range, San Antonio is not likely to get the scoring it needs to win. Take Oklahoma City outright.
Pick: Thunder +4.5
