The Phoenix Suns (2-10) look to end their five-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder (7-5) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, November 12, 2018.
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction
The Suns are hoping for a better outcome after failing to cover as 9-point underdogs in their 119-99 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup. The game’s combined points (218) finished under the projected point total of 228.5. New Orleans won the rebounding battle. The Pelicans had 16 offensive rebounds and 54 total rebounds, while the Suns had 10 and 37, respectively. Deandre Ayton played well for Phoenix, finishing with 20 points and 12 rebounds.
In the Thunder’s previous matchup, they lost to the Dallas Mavericks, 111-96. They were not able to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (207) finished under the projected point total of 213.5. Dallas’ effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Oklahoma City. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.649 (above their season average of 0.519), while the Thunder posted a mark of 0.438 (below their season average of 0.495). With 20 points on 8-for-21 shooting, Paul George was Oklahoma City’s leading scorer.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Nerlens Noel put up 20 points and 15 rebounds in the first matchup, in which the Thunder defeated the Suns 117-110 but were unable to cover as 13.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was 8 points above the projected point total of 219 points. The Thunder’s 13.0 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Suns, who had a rate of 18.4.
Phoenix heads into the contest with records of 2-10 straight up (SU) and 5-7 against the spread (ATS). Of the Suns’ 12 games, seven have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 7-5 SU and 7-5 ATS. Similarly to Phoenix, games including the Thunder also tend to finish under the projected point total (58.3 percent).
Dennis Schroder and Jerami Grant have been playing well over the last five games for Oklahoma City. Schroder has averaged 20.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Grant has recorded 13.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals a game during that span.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Oklahoma City figures to have a considerable advantage. The Thunder defense ranks eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.509), while the Phoenix offense is ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.506). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Suns. They rank 30th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 17.5 percent), while the Thunder force the second-most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 17.2 percent).
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS on the road with 3 unders and 2 overs.
At home, Oklahoma City is 3-3 ATS with 4 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 2-0 when they allow less than 100 points.
The Thunder are 5-2 when they reach the century mark, while the Suns are 2-4.
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (17.0) while Phoenix ranks 29th (9.8).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (11.4) while the Suns rank 28th in steals allowed per game (10.4).
Oklahoma City ranks second in points off turnovers per game (22.2) while Phoenix ranks 27th (14.3).
The Thunder rank eighth in points in the paint per game (50.7) while the Suns rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (55.8).
Oklahoma City ranks 10th in fast break points per game (14.8) while Phoenix ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (20.6).
The Thunder rank eighth in rebounds per game (47.2) while the Suns rank 26th (41.8).
Oklahoma City ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.5) while Phoenix ranks 25th (3.4).
The Suns rank 17th in assists per game (23.2) while the Thunder rank 26th (20.6).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.2, down from 13.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (matching their season average) and allowed an average of 100.8 points per game (5.8 below their season average).
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