It has been nearly a month since the 2026 NFL draft, giving a clearer view of each team’s roster and rookie roles. Projections presented here were compiled through both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (expected depth-chart placement and role) methods; missed time due to injury is not factored and players are projected for 17 games unless otherwise noted, according to the projections.
At the top of the passing projections is Las Vegas’ No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, forecast for 3,052 yards and 14 touchdowns in 14 starts. Other quarterbacks projected to lead rookies are Carson Beck of the Arizona Cardinals (448 yards, 3 TDs in two starts), Ty Simpson of the Los Angeles Rams (146 yards) and Cade Klubnik of the New York Jets (143 yards), according to the projections.
The class projects as a low-impact rookie quarterback group in Year 1. Two quarterbacks were selected in the first round and none in the second, and it is possible there will be zero rookie Week 1 starters. Historical data cited with these projections show that from 2012 to 2025, 33 of 45 first-round QBs (73%) had taken over as a starter by Week 4 and 23 (51%) started in Week 1. Nine of 11 No. 1 overall picks in that span started in Week 1, with Baker Mayfield (Week 3) and Jared Goff (Week 11) as exceptions. Among 32 rookie QBs who appeared in at least 12 games since 2012, the average was 3,051 passing yards and 16.7 touchdown passes — a yardage total nearly identical to Mendoza’s projection, with the touchdown figure higher, in part because of Las Vegas’ unsettled wide receiver room.
At receiver, Tennessee’s Carnell Tate projects to lead rookies with 1,065 yards and five touchdowns. He is followed by Jordyn Tyson of the New Orleans Saints (917 yards, five TDs), Makai Lemon of the Philadelphia Eagles (883 yards, five TDs), KC Concepcion of the Cleveland Browns (773 yards, three TDs) and Kenyon Sadiq of the New York Jets (691 yards, four TDs). Both Tate (No. 4 overall) and Tyson (No. 8 overall) were top-10 selections, according to the projections.
Full statistical outlooks and sortable projections for the entire league are available in the accompanying PDF and on the projections page, which are updated frequently in the run-up to the season, according to the projections.
