The 25th ranked San Diego State Aztecs travel into the Rocky Mountains to play the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West Conference showdown on Saturday. The game is set to go off on Saturday, September 23rd at 7:00 p.m. EST. You can watch the game on the CBS Sports Network. Heading into this clash, odds makers have the Aztecs as a -3.5 point favorite and games total sits at 47.5 points.
The San Diego State overcame a weather delay to comeback in the final minute to upset the 19th ranked Stanford Cardinal last Saturday night. San Diego State’s defense came up big, holding the Cardinal to under 240 yards of total offense.
The Air Force Falcons were beaten by the seventh ranked Michigan Wolverines 29-13 in Ann Arbor. In that game, Air Force hung around for the duration of the game because of their red zone defense. The Wolverines had to settle for five field goals in the victory.
The Falcons lead the all-time series 19-15 but San Diego State has won six straight. That includes a 27-24 win for the Mountain West Championship Game. That contest was the most recent meeting between the programs.
(25) San Diego State Aztecs (3-0)
The Aztecs remained unbeaten as they surprised Stanford after a darkness delay. San Diego State also scored the winning touchdown with 54 seconds to play after an 11 play, 75-yard drive that took 5:21 off the clock.
Quarterback Christian Chapman isn’t going to light up the scoreboard with his arm. Instead, he is asked to manage the offense without making any costly turnovers. So far so good in 2017. Thus far, Chapman has tossed the ball for 480 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
San Diego State is a running team first. Their offense likes to control the clock and methodically wear defenses down in the trenches. As a result, they look to the services of talented tail back Rashard Penny. Penny is one of the most productive in the FBS this year, rushing for 588 yards and four touchdowns. Furthermore, his 8.6 yards per carry is tops among Division I backs with over 50 carries.
Mikah Holder leads the Aztecs’ receiving corp. although he doesn’t get a whole lot of looks, he makes the most of them. This season, he has caught 11 passes for 111 and no touchdown grabs. Rashard Penny also catches balls out of the backfield, tallying nine catches and another score.
The strength of the Aztecs are their defense. Not only was this unit great in 2016, but their well on their way to replicating it again this year. As of this article, San Diego State is currently ranked 28th in the nation, giving up just under 300 yards per contest. The front seven is especially stingy, allowing teams only 91 yards on the ground.
Air Force Falcons (1-1)
The Falcons hung tough against Michigan’s defense but couldn’t come up with enough plays on either side of the ball to earn the upset. Air Force was within a field goal late in the third quarter but gave up the game’s final 13 points.
Air Force is doing their best to integrate a passing game into their option attack. In 2017, quarterback Arion Worthman has completed nine of 19 passes for 233 yards and three touchdowns. Let’s not forget, he also runs the ball from under center. Coming into this game, he has toted the rock 37 times for 93 yards and another score.
The main go-to guy out of the back field for the Falcons is running back Timothy McVey. Although Arion Worthman handles the ball more, McVey still has 21 attempts for 160 yards and one touchdown. Altogether, Air Force is ninth in the nation rushing for just under 320 yards per game.
Most of the plays called for Air force require their receivers to block first then try to make a play or two in the play-action attack. Ronald Cleveland and Geruad Sanders are those two players. Together, they have a measly four catches for about 125 yards and three scores to show for their limited action.
The Falcons defense stood strong against a much larger Michigan offense last week in the Big House. Yes, the Wolverines got some yardage but Air Force tightend it up in the red zone quite nicely. Overall, the Falcons rank eighth in the county allowing only 227 yards per game. Their secondary has been great, giving up only 104 yards per contest (4th).
Prediction
Offensively, these two teams programs are very similar in the way they like to break opposing teams defenses down. Both will look to run the ball and burn the other by throwing down field with the play-action pass. Also, both are pretty damn good at doing just that.
The Aztecs are flying high after taking down Stanford in the final minute last week. As stated in one of my articles earlier in the week, momentum is huge in college football. It’s not that Air Force didn’t over achieve in Michigan, but it wasn’t a upset win over the Cardinal either.
In the end, I suggest you lay your money with the best player on the field who will see the most touches. In this game, that is Rashard Penny. I don’t expect huge numbers against a defense that certainly has enough practice stopping the run but enough to get the win.
Line setters have the Aztecs at -3.5 points but I prefer to take the half time -2.5 or three instead. The 47.5 total is very low, but because these two teams go about their business in the same way, it could be risky taking the over. Instead, just cheer for the Aztecs to be up a score or two at halftime and cash out early.
The Aztecs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
The Aztecs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
The Under is 4-0-1 in the Aztecs last five games overall.
The Over is 5-1 in the Aztecs last six conference games.
The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
The Falcons are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Falcons last six home games.
The Over is 13-3 in the Falcons last 16 conference games.
The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Falcons.
