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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Free Pick 04/17/18

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals will head north to Wrigley Field to take on their divisional rival Chicago Cubs. NBC Sports Chicago will be televising the matchup and the game will get underway at 8:05 p.m. ET.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds

The Cardinals have gone 9-7 SU this year and are 9-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 0.5 units for moneyline bettors over the early part of the season and 1.0 unit ATS. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 7-7 SU and 7-7 ATS. They’ve lost 5.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 0.2 units ATS.

Cubs games have had an over/under record of 6-8 so far in 2018. The Cardinals have an over/under record of 7-9.

Right-hander Adam Wainwright will get the nod for the visiting Cardinals. Wainwright is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and seven strikeouts. He has yet to face Chicago this year, but he did make three starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-1 record with a 1.83 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

The Cubs are preparing to start righty Tyler Chatwood (0-2, 4.91 ERA), who has 11 strikeouts and seven walks, as well as a 1.82 WHIP. Chatwood did not record a start against the Cardinals in 2017.

St. Louis’ pitchers have allowed 3.5 runs per game and its starters own a 3.31 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.68 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.27, along with a WHIP of 1.25.

Cardinals hitters have slashed .246/.326/.414 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game this season, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

St. Louis’ hitters have been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and right fielder Tommy Pham. Martinez is slashing .364/.446/.600 with three home runs, 15 RBIs and five runs scored, while Pham (.322/.429/.475) is up to two homers, five RBIs, 15 runs and five stolen bases.

Martinez didn’t do as well batting against righty pitching on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .257/.333/.371 across 117 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .309/.379/.518).

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitchers have given up 4.2 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have a 5.40 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.09, a WHIP of 1.11 and a K/9 of 8.7. In eight games against divisional opponents, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.40 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.55.

Chicago’s hitters are putting up 5.1 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .269/.350/.474 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Cubs’ offense has been led by third baseman Kris Bryant and second baseman Javier Baez. Bryant is hitting .352/.493/.611 with 19 hits, eight RBIs and nine runs scored, while Baez’s line sits at .191/.309/.574 with four homers, 14 RBIs and 11 runs.

The Cardinals have lost 1.4 units and are 6-6 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 4.2 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in four of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

The under has hit in four of Chicago’s last seven games.

Chicago has recorded 22.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.4 over its last five.

The Cardinals have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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