The St. Louis Cardinals will be squaring off against their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The game gets underway 6:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Midwest will televise the action.
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Odds
Vegas has listed St. Louis (-140) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+130). The total stands at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -125 and the under for +105. The game’s runline odds stand at +105 for betting the Cardinals -1.5 runs and -125 for the Reds +1.5.
The Cardinals have gone 6-7 SU this year and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.5 units for gamblers taking the moneyline this year and 1.1 units ATS. The Reds are 2-10 SU and 5-6 ATS. The team’s lost 6.7 units for moneyline bettors and 2.7 units ATS.
Reds games have had an over/under record of 5-6 thus far in 2018. The Cardinals have an over/under record of 6-6.
The Cardinals have lost 4.4 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in five of those games, as opposed to four that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 4.7 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in four of those games, as opposed to five which went under the total.
The right-handed Luke Weaver (1-0, 1.59 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Cardinals. Weaver recorded 72 strikeouts across 60 innings last year (with only 17 walks) while finishing the season 7-2 overall with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He made two starts against the Reds in 2017 and compiled a 2-0 record against them with a 1.64 ERA and 13 strikeouts.
The Reds are going with righty Tyler Mahle (1-1, 4.22 ERA) as their starter. Mahle started 4 games last year and finished the season 1-2 overall with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 6.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.40, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.6. The bullpen has a 7.16 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In six divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.07 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.59.
Cincinnati’s offense has produced 3.2 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .194/.263/.241 over its last five games and is 0-5 SU during that stretch.
The Reds’ hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Suarez is slashing .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, while Barnhart’s line is .276/.417/.448 with eight hits, two RBIs and three runs scored.
Suarez seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching at home last year. Across 229 such plate appearances, he slashed .279/.380/.604 (compared to his overall season line of .260/.367/.461).
In the other dugout, St. Louis’ pitching staff allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.34 K/9. The bullpen has logged a solid ERA of just 3.18, along with a K/9 of 9.13.
Cardinals hitters have slashed .241/.323/.399 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 6.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
St. Louis’ offensive production been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and shortstop Paul DeJong. Martinez is hitting .364/.442/.614 with 16 hits, 14 RBIs and four runs scored, while DeJong (.286/.327/.551) is up to 14 hits, four homers, six RBIs and eight runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .309/.379/.518, Martinez didn’t do as well batting against right-handed pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .257/.333/.371 across 117 such plate appearances.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The under has cashed in four of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
The Reds have lost seven of their last eight games SU.
St. Louis fielders have committed two errors over their last five games, compared to six errors for Cincinnati over its last five.
The Cardinals have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit four over their last 10.
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