The Baltimore Orioles are paying a visit to Fenway Park to take on their AL East nemesis Boston Red Sox. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will broadcast the matchup.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Boston (-200) as the favorite over Baltimore (+185). The total stands at 9.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -125 and the under for +105. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at Orioles +1.5 runs (-120) and Red Sox +-1.5 runs (+100).
The Orioles have gone 5-8 SU this year and are 6-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.0 unit for gamblers taking the moneyline this year and 1.1 units ATS. The Red Sox are 10-2 SU and 4-7 ATS. The team has gained 6.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 3.0 units ATS.
Red Sox games have an over/under record of 6-5 so far in 2018. The Orioles have an over/under record of 4-8-1.
The Orioles have gained 1.1 units and are 3-1 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in two of those games, compared to one that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 5.3 units and are 4-6 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in six of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under.
Chris Tillman (0-2, 8.68 ERA) will get the start for the visiting Orioles. The right-handed Tillman started 19 games last year while finishing the season 1-7 overall with a 7.84 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP.
The BoSox have tabbed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 7.36 ERA) as their starter. Rodriguez struck out 150 hitters in 137 innings last year (24 starts), while finishing the season 6-7 overall with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He recorded three starts against Baltimore a year ago and put up a 1-2 record with a 5.89 ERA and 20 strikeouts.
As a unit, Boston’s pitchers have yielded 3.3 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have an ERA of 2.01, a WHIP of 1.01 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.1. The bullpen has a 4.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 10 games against AL East opponents, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 2.09 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.25.
Boston’s hitters are putting up 5.8 runs per outing, including 5.8 per game against divisional foes and 9.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .288/.376/.500 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Outfielder Mookie Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts have led the Red Sox hitters so far. Betts is hitting .370/.455/.630 with 17 hits, nine RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Bogaerts has put up a line of .368/.400/.711 with 14 hits, nine RBIs and seven runs scored.
In the other dugout, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.37 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 8.74 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.42, along with a K-per-9 of 8.35.
The Orioles offense has slashed .216/.293/.349 on its way to 3.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Baltimore’s offensive production been led by Manny Machado and Pedro Alvarez. Machado is slashing .321/.419/.547 with 17 hits, six RBIs and six runs scored, while Alvarez (.263/.462/.526) is up to five hits, five RBIs and four runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .260/.311/.473, Machado seemed to take a step back when hitting on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .229/.268/.398 across 336 plate appearances.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in only two of Boston’s last seven games.
The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11 games SU.
Boston has recorded 25.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 28.6 over its last five.
The Orioles have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit nine over their last 10.
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