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Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres Free Pick 09/16/18

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Texas Rangers will play the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. Fox Sports Southwest will be airing this interleague matchup and the action gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres Odds

Vegas has listed San Diego (+110) as the underdog to Texas (-120). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at +125 for the Rangers -1.5 runs and -145 for the Padres +1.5 runs.

The Padres are 59-90 straight up (SU) and 71-77 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 12.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 28.4 units (ATS). The Rangers are 64-84 SU and have gone 72-75 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 5.4 units for moneyline bettors and 7.8 units ATS.

Padres games have had an over/under record of 70-73-5 in 2018. Texas has an over/under record of 69-68-10.

The left-handed Mike Minor is getting the start for Texas. Minor is 12-7 with a 4.19 ERA and 121 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against San Diego this year.

The Padres are putting the ball in the right hand of Jacob Nix (2-3, 6.00 ERA), who’s got 16 punchouts and nine walks this season as well as a 1.43 WHIP. Nix hasn’t faced the Rangers yet this year and did not pitch in the majors last season.

Texas’ pitching staff allowed 5.3 runs per game and its starters own a 5.43 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 6.28 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.25, along with a WHIP of 1.44.

The Rangers offense has slashed .242/.324/.409 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game this season, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Texas’ offensive production has been powered by Shin-soo Choo and Jurickson Profar, who collectively have launched 38 home runs. Choo is slashing .270/.383/.448 with 21 home runs, 62 RBIs and 80 runs scored, while Profar has a .256 average with 17 homers, 73 RBIs and 77 runs scored.

For the home team, San Diego’s pitchers have yielded 4.8 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 5.13, a WHIP of 1.46 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.1 K/9.

The San Diego offense has put up 3.8 runs per contest, including 3.7 per game over its last 10 games and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .231/.309/.379 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Freddy Galvis have led the Padres’ offense this year. Hosmer is slashing .250/.316/.400 with 17 home runs, 65 RBIs and 69 runs scored, while the line for Galvis stands at .233/.288/.352 with 11 homers, 60 RBIs and 51 runs.

The Rangers have lost 1.8 units and are 50-49 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 45 of those games, compared to 49 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 12.6 units and are 18-29 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 26 of those games, as opposed to 19 which went under the total.

Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The under has hit in three of San Diego’s last seven games.

Texas fielders have 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to four errors for San Diego over its last 10.

The Rangers have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 14 over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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