This was supposed to be the final game of the NFL’s Divisional round, but thanks to incoming weather the Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs game has been moved to 8:20 p.m. That means the Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3) will be the penultimate game of the weekend, and it will answer plenty of questions.
The line on this game ticked up half a point, meaning plenty of money was coming in on the Cowboys’ side. Not only that, but the over moved up half a point as well, meaning everybody thinks a lot of points will be scored in this game.
Do I? Let’s get fired up and find out.
The Game: Green Bay at Dallas (-5, 52.5 O/U)
How the Packers Go Here
Aaron Rodgers carved up the New York Giants secondary in the second half of last week’s wild card game, not only keeping the pressure on an under-performing Giants defense, but continually scoring points until the game was too far out of reach long before it was over.
A lot of praise has come Mike McCarthy’s way during the Pack’s now seven-game win streak and I have not really been one of those guys. Do I think he’s done better on his play design and calling? Yes. Do I think he’s “good” now? No.
And I’ll explain.
#Packers coach Mike McCarthy says WR Jordy Nelson, who has multiple rib fractures, will be out for Sunday’s game vs. #Cowboys.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 13, 2017
Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in history at moving around in the pocket. So many times you’ll see Rodgers drop back, not see anyone open, and begin dancing around pass rushers and rolling away from potential sacks in order to give his receivers time to get open on playground pass plays. It happens a lot and it’s always a spectacular highlight. I think at one point last week Rodgers kept a play alive for over eight seconds. That’s a bull ride, for God’s sake.
But more than that, it’s a bad play. Now, a good defense can shut any play down, but it doesn’t happen consistently. When you have receivers like Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Devante Adams, one of those guys can get open against a defense on a well designed play. The fact that they can’t, sometimes on multiple, consecutive plays on a drive, means only one of three things.
1. The perfect defense and defensive personnel grouping has been called.
2. The wrong offensive play for the situation was called.
3. The offensive play design was so unsophisticated it could easily be defensed.
Two of those problems fall directly on Mike McCarthy’s lap. A regular, drop-back, pass play is designed to work this way; The quarterback makes a pre-snap read based on the type of defense he sees on the other side, each play has a set number of steps after the snap. The number is determined by the passing routes on the play. It can be anywhere from a hot read, which is usually one step, to a two or three step for a quick slant or a wide receiver screen, to a five or even seven-step drop to open up deeper passes downfield.
But, regardless of how many steps the quarterback is supposed to take on the drop, the idea is that via his pre-snap read and his scan during the drop back, he knows where he’s going with the ball once his back foot hits the ground his final step. Maybe he gets one more look after that, but for most quarterbacks at that point, if no one is open, they either get sacked, throw a pick, take off or throw the ball away. Rodgers can keep those plays alive. It’s a fantastic talent that has nothing to do with Mike McCarthy’s ability as a playcaller and play designer. In fact, the reason it’s on display so much is because McCarthy is so poor at both those jobs.
How the Cowboys Got Here
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott teamed up to unleash the greatest rookie tandem season in NFL history. But even if they didn’t, Prescott’s rookie campaign would be the best all by itself.
Get your mind right. #FinishThisFight pic.twitter.com/Y2u88vZ6OX
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) January 13, 2017
I wrote all last offseason that Prescott was the most pro-ready rookie of that draft class and all the kid has done is prove me right every single weekend. If anything, the Cowboys offense has become more explosive as the season has rolled along. Dez Bryant is not only healthy, he’s completely bought in to the current play style, seeing a ring and maybe a dynasty in his future. I do too.
The defense has improved too and should only be better with the expected return of Morris Claiborne to the defensive backfield.
The X-Factors
No rookie quarterback has ever taken his team to the Super Bowl in 50 tries. That’s Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and not Dan Marino. None of them could do it. So will Dak Prescott be the guy that flips that script? We’ll find out Sunday.
The Pick
While Prescott is a rookie, as every analyst and pundit likes to say, he doesn’t play like a rookie. His understanding of the game and his consistent performances make him look like a five-year vet. The Cowboys were too much for the Packers back in October and I don’t see that changing. Especially with Jordy Nelson sidelined with a rib injury. Cowboys 31, Packers 23
Last Week
Straight up: 3-1
Against the spread: 3-1
Season
Straight up: 160-98-2
Against the spread: 131-129
To make a wager on this week’s NFL games, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
