Our NFL playoff journey once again begins on a Saturday afternoon for one more week. First up, the Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) travel to the dirty south to take on the Atlanta Falcons (11-5).
The Falcons had the week off to prepare for their opponent, which depending on how last week’s games went could have been the Green Bay Packers, the New York Giants or the Seahawks. Since Dan Quinn isn’t an idiot, I assumed he went ahead and popped in the Seattle film for a few peaks, just to be safe.
The line and total on this one has yet to move, which means everybody is pretty happy with the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite.
Am I? Well, let’s take a look and see right after we get fired up. By God, let’s get fired up first.
https://youtu.be/th370QmFtk8?t=14s
The Game: Seattle at Atlanta (-4.5, 51 O/U)
How the Seahawks Got Here
The Seahawks completely dismantled the Detroit Lions in the the NFC Wild Card round, 26-6. The Lions, for their part, shouldn’t have even been in the playoffs and can’t even say they were happy to be there. Seattle, on the other hand, got in a glorified practice.
Second-year running back Thomas Rawls ran all over Detroit to the tune of 161 yards and a touchdown while Russell Wilson was Russell Wilson, completing 23-of-30 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
We all we got. #Brotherhood pic.twitter.com/urFdO8xum6
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) January 12, 2017
The defense harassed Matthew Stafford all game, recording three sacks and six tackles for a loss. It wasn’t much of a game, but, really, none of the Wild Card contests were. It was an ass week.
How the Falcons Got Here
Atlanta cruised to an NFC South title with a solid, all-around season, if you don’t look at a few of their head-scratching losses. The Falcons dropped their opening week match-up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which seemed to be OK when the team reeled off four straight wins.
But a two-point loss to the Seahawks was followed up by a startling three-point loss to San Diego at home. They would drop a road game to the Philadelphia Eagles where they scored just 15 points and a home game to the Chiefs, lost on an extra point return for a safety by Eric Berry. It was nuts.
Let's unite #InBrotherhood.
Change your Twitter avatar to officially join our Brotherhood. pic.twitter.com/vcOnzBAYQU
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 11, 2017
The Falcons won their final four games, but haven’t really faced a legitimate opponent since dropping that heartbreaker to the Chiefs.
Through all that Julio Jones had another monster season, running back DeVonta Freeman recorded back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons in spite of sharing the ball with Tevin Coleman and all Matt Ryan did was make a case that he’s the best quarterback in the NFL. And even if he isn’t, he still may be the MVP.
The X Factors
You’re going to see pundits go on about the match up between Richard Sherman and Julio Jones and it’s a waste of words. There is no match up. In their game back in October Jones ate Sherman’s lunch in front of him and popped the bag. So it’s not an X-Factor if the Seahawks know coming in it’s a match up they’re going to lose. The only play Sherman made against Jones was an uncalled pass interference.
No, the real X-Factor will be the Falcons’ running backs, Freeman and Coleman. With Sherman needing safety help over the top on Jones (and that safety won’t be Earl Thomas this time), the Seahawks will have to play an honest front against one of the best running attacks in the NFL. Freeman averaged 4.8 yards per carry and Coleman 4.4. Any “strategic” move to limit those guys opens up big plays on the back end and Matt Ryan will exploit it.
The Pick
After last week’s chalk results, everybody is going to search for an upset this week. I don’t see it here. The Seahawks have too much trouble with a pass rush and Atlanta has one of the best in the league, led by Vic Beasley and his 15.5 sacks. Russell Wilson will make his plays and keep the Seahawks in it right until the end, but the Falcons have too many weapons and Seattle is too short-handed. Falcons 27, Seahawks 24
Last Week
Straight up: 3-1
Against the spread: 3-1
Season
Straight up: 160-98-2
Against the spread: 131-129
To make a wager on this week’s NFL games, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
