The Miami Heat (43-38) and Toronto Raptors (59-22) get their Eastern Conference schedules started at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on The Sports Network at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 11, 2018.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The Raptors come in on a high note after topping the Detroit Pistons in their last contest, 108-98. Toronto’s 21.6 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Detroit, who had a mark of 9.1. The Raptors’ mark was below their season average of 23.1, while the Pistons’ was below their season average of 22.9. With 25 points on 11-for-13 shooting, Jonas Valanciunas was the top scorer from either team.
The last time the Heat played, they lost big to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 115-93. Oklahoma City was effective at getting and making free throws. The Thunder made 31 of their 38 free throws (81.6 percent), while the Heat were just 8-14 (57.1 percent). Miami’s Hassan Whiteside contributed 16 points and eight rebounds in the game.
Miami might have difficulty finding the bottom of the net as they square off against one of the league’s best defenses. Toronto currently ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 21st in offensive efficiency.
Toronto holds records of 59-22 straight up (SU) and 44-37 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Raptors have gone over the O/U total 50.6 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Miami is 43-38 SU and 40-37-4 ATS. In opposition of Toronto, games including the Heat have gone under the O/U total 51.9 percent of the time.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Raptors won the most recent matchup 115-112, but did not cover as 9-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was 23 points above the projected point total of 204 points. The Raptors’ 7.4 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Heat, who had a rate of 14.5. Kyle Lowry was a standout player in the game, putting up 22 points and eight assists.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Toronto is 22-18 ATS with 21 overs and 19 unders.
Miami is 16-22-2 ATS at home with 21 unders, 17 overs and 2 pushes.
Miami is 27-6 when they allow under 100 points, while Toronto is 28-5.
The Heat are 31-18 when they score above 100 points, while the Raptors are 53-14.
Toronto ranks 10th in fast break points per game (13.4) while Miami ranks 28th (9.2).
The Raptors rank 10th in second chance points per game (12.9) while the Heat rank 25th (11.0).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while Toronto ranks 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
The Raptors rank third in three pointers attempted per game (33.0) while the Heat rank ninth (30.6).
Toronto averages 17.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Miami ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.7).
The Heat average 44.7 points in the paint per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Raptors rank 16th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.1).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.9) while Toronto ranks sixth (21.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Toronto is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Raptors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.4, up from 8.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.2 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.2 points per game (3.3 above their season average).
*****
