The frustrating thing about looking at free agency from outside each team is that the moves seem so obvious, the players they need to sign such no-brainers that when it doesn’t happen, as a fan, you get frustrated. Say that you like the Jacksonville Jaguars and have over $60 million in open cap space before you even make any of your pre-March 9 cuts.
How could you not put a real NFL team on the field with that much money? You could take over a Madden franchise today and sign a Super Bowl roster with the free agents available this year with $60 million in space and go undefeated. Why can’t it happen in real life?
Because these guys are “free agents,” and unlike the Ndomukong Suh and Derrelle Revis on Madden, they actually have a choice where they end up other than just matching their pre-determined salary requirements.
So for a bad team in real life to get elite guys, they have to show that they’re building something and they have to overspend. If a contender is willing to offer Revis $8 million a year over the next three seasons, you’ve got to come in with $12 million and guarantee a lot of it. To quote the most often quoted line from The Godfather, you’ve got to make them an offer they can’t refuse.
So while I think teams like the Raiders and Jaguars may end up with some of these young talented prospects, it’ll take a special effort to get them to sign or re-sign. So let’s see who we like.
The Defensive Linemen
Derrick Morgan, 26, DE/OLB, Tennessee Titans
2014: 63 tackles, 6.5 sacks, seven passes defended and two forced fumbles.
Morgan has started all but two games the last four seasons and delivered consistent stats every year. Moving to a 3-4 outside linebacker last season didn’t hurt his stats at all, even after spending his first four seasons in the league as a 4-3 defensive end. Morgan can produce at either position, it just won’t be in Tennessee.
Where he’ll probably end up: Atlanta Falcons
Dan Quinn has to replace Atlanta’s inept 3-4 defense with a 4-3 unit and Morgan is the perfect guy to start with. Even if the personnel isn’t there this year to do it make the change-over completely, Morgan gives the versatility to do both, all without breaking the bank.
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Terrance Knighton, 28, DT, Denver Broncos
2014: 30 tackles, two sacks, three passes defended.
Knighton hasn’t dominated at the defensive tackle position since he entered the league in 2009, but he’s been a solid starter and for many teams, especially teams running a 4-3 defense, that’s all they need. Knightton is a big body at 6-foot-3, 331 pounds and has stayed healthy and started every game but three in his six-year career since he was drafted by the Jaguars out of Temple.
Where he’ll probably end up: Detroit Lions
The Lions have made it clear that if they lose Suh in free agency, and I don’t see how they won’t, Knighton is their top choice to replace him. While Knighton won’t have the impact that Suh had on the passing game, he’ll definitely take up space and play his role, letting the linebackers make the plays behind him.
The Outside Linebackers
Dan Skuta, 28, San Francisco 49ers
2014: 33 tackles, five sacks, one pass defended, three forced fumbles.
Injuries forced Skuta into the starting line up in San Francisco twice over the last two seasons and both times he delivered starter-level performances. With Nevarro Bowman and Patrick Willis both expected back next season, the 49ers won’t have the money or the space to keep Skuta on the roster and he won’t want to be a back-up anymore.
Where he’ll probably end up: Chicago Bears
Vic Fangio’s hiring in Chicago all-but assures that Skuta will follow him there. Whether Fangio sticks with the Bears’ 4-3 personnel or converts the team to a 3-4, Skuta will fit in either way.
Brandon Graham, 26, Philadelphia Eagles
2014: 46 tackles, 5.5 sacks, four forced fumbles.
I want you to look at Graham’s stats for 2014 and then realize something – He does not start for Philadelphia. Graham is Trent Cole’s back-up and a situational pass rusher. The former first round pick at defensive end out Michigan in 2010 and looking like a bust, Graham thrived in the Eagles’ 3-4 scheme this season after being moved out outside linebacker.
Where he’ll probably end up: New York Jets
New Jets head coach Todd Bowles has to rebuild his entire team practically and luckily he has the cap money to do it. Calvin Pace had a decent season last year, but heading into his 13th season he’ll likely get cut before March 9, leaving a starting spot open on the right side that Graham can plug right into.
Jason Worilds, 26, Pittsburgh Steelers
2014: 59 tackles, 7.5 sacks, one forced fumble, two fumble recoveries, one interception and two passes defended.
The only thing that will keep the Steelers from re-signing Worilds is their own cap problems and they have plenty of them. The Steelers are currently expected to be $1.15 million over the projected 2015 cap. Granted, that number will change as they cut players and redo contracts, but they still won’t have tons to spend and the Steelers are notorious for letting players like Worilds walk in free agency. They definitely won’t win any bidding wars and have no desire to.
Where he’ll probably end up: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have already let it be known they’ll waste no time signing big free agents this offseason and Arians knows all about Worilds because he coached for the Steelers when they drafted him. Arizona’s biggest competition in landing Worilds might be the Colts, who have tons of cap space and should rightly see that Worilds would be an upgrade over the guys they have at outside linebacker, but they may also have their sites set on another guy.
Pernell McPhee, 26, Baltimore Ravens
2014: 27 tackles, 7.5 sacks, one forced fumble, four passes defended.
Like the Eagles’ Brandon Graham, McPhee has been a back-up and situational pass rusher for the Ravens since the team drafted him out of Mississippi State in 2011. McPhee has thrived in that role, averaging 18 tackles and over four sacks a season. The Ravens will open the league year with modest cap space, but at this point McPhee is a luxury unless they feel Terrell Suggs will drop off and after a 60-tackle, 12-sack season, that isn’t likely.
Where he’ll probably end up: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts, before the league year even ends, have the sixth best cap situation in the league with $35.6 million available as of today. They can afford to add McPhee to an already decent outside linebacker corps and turn it into a great one. Chuck Pagano was the Ravens defensive coordinator in McPhee’s his rookie season when where he picked up 23 tackles and six sacks so a reunion might be in order.
