The Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins are facing off in the postseason yet again. It is arguably the most highly anticipated matchups of the postseason.
How could it not be?
Washington took home the President’s Trophy for the second season in a row, but took a while to find their game against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the opening round. Sidney Crosby and the Penguins steamrolled over the Columbus Blue Jackets, stomping on any romantic thoughts of a Blue Jackets’ playoff series win.
What will the storyline be when it is all said and done? Will Alex Ovechkin finally get the upper-hand on Sidney Crosby? Can this 2016-2017 Capitals team be the one that gets it done in the playoffs? Will Matt Murray ever return?
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Penguins.
Washington is a better 5-on-5 team than Pittsburgh in terms of controlling pace of play. They have the better Corsi-for rating in both the regular season and the postseason. However, no one generates scoring chances or high-danger chances better than the Penguins. Pittsburgh led the NHL in high-danger chances for and high-danger goals for in the regular season, meaning they get to the high-percentage areas and when they do, they make teams pay.
Pittsburgh has been far more successful at opening up the ice when they want to. When the Capitals took on the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Leafs were able to play up to the Caps’ level for most of the series. Surprisingly so, actually. So what happens when more elite players are coming up the ice?
Both of these teams are crazy talented up front. Really, it’s criminal that the loser of this series will have to go home and watch one of the Rangers or Senators haplessly try to keep pace with the victor. But there are names beyond the Crosbys, Malkins and Ovechkins in the series that are worth keeping an eye on.
For the Penguins, that man is Jake Guentzel. If you were not familiar with him before the opening round, you should be now. Guentzel had an impressive rookie campaign, tallying 33 points in 40 goals. He made an immediate impact, scoring on his first NHL shift against the New York Rangers. His brother was in the stands to witness it, and the reaction was absolutely priceless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNYMJ3h9zCQ
Against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Guentzel netted five goals. One came on the powerplay. One came shorthanded. Two were game-winners. He’s just making sure he’s covered all his bases in the NHL.com stat sheets. There are simply too many weapons to keep tabs on when the Penguins are on the ice, so Guentzel flew under the radar. He will not in this series. He will continue to skate on the top line with Crosby and either Conor Sheary or Patric Hornqvist.
Also expected to make a difference for the Penguins is Chris Kunitz. Kunitz sat out the entirety of the first round with a lower-body injury but he could provide a spark in the bottom-six should be officially return to the lineup. While no decision has definitively been made by head coach Mike Sullivan, Kunitz skated with Tom Kuhnhackl and Matt Cullen on the fourth line in practice the other day. This would mean replacing Carter Rowney, who played five unspectacular games in the opening round.
Carl Hagelin is practicing but is not expected to play in Game 1. When Hagelin comes back? Hoo boy.
Washington will the best out of Evgeny Kuznetsov and Lars Eller. The Pens are simply too good down the middle, trotting out Crosby, Malkin and Nick Bonino down the middle with Cullen on the fourth line. T.J. Oshie is a good enough two-way player to hold his own against Crosby, but countering Malkin’s line will be brutal. Kuznetsov was abused by the Maple Leafs possession-wise and was a net negative in terms of scoring chances for and against. While he was on the ice for 20 high-danger chances for and three goals from such chances, he also allowed 29 high-danger chances and four goals. Good luck defending the leading scorer of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at that rate.
There’s one other guy on the Capitals who will need to have a terrific series…
Defense: advantage Capitals.
…And that man is Kevin Shattenkirk. Shattenkirk was the Capitals’ prize at the NHL trade deadline. Shattenkirk was tied to three Metro Division teams as the deadline approached. Two are in this series.
Shattenkirk had three points in the first round, all powerplay assists. He skates on the Caps’ third pair with Brooks Orpik. On the NHL Network, I heard E.J. Hradek criticize Shattenkirk for being too prone to “defensive zone mistakes.” This is old-time-hockey slang for “he’s an offensive defenseman who tries to make things happen and for this I hate him.” Do the numbers back Hradek up?
Well, not really. Yes, Shattenkirk was outshot for most of the series in the opening round but in terms of scoring chances, he was a net positive. He was outscored when on the ice, but he was given brutal zone starts, especially in the latter few games of the series. If you notice his stat sheet on NaturalStatTrick, you’ll notice his offensive and defensive play markedly improved when given more offensive zone starts. Fancy that!
It’s not so much that Shattenkirk needs to play better. It’s that he needs to be utilized better. And that’s on Barry Trotz.
Nate Schmidt will also need to have a better series alongside John Carlson.
There are other defenseman that are more worthy of being picked on than Kevin Shattenkirk. Ian Cole, for example. Cole plays on the top pairing with Justin Schultz for the Penguins and offers very little. While he was not bad by any means in the first round (he never did post a Corsi-for rating higher than 47%, which is no bueno), he simply is not a true top-pairing defenseman.
Olli Maatta started the series strong against Columbus but finished Game 5 being outshot 23-9 at 5-on-5.
But yes, pick on Shattenkirk because of his “mistakes.”
I’m not saying Shattenkirk has been flawless. He does have marked room for improvement. I’m just sick of old-timey hockey people picking on offensive defensemen for no reason. Keith Yandle faces that kind of criticism. So does P.K. Subban. So did Erik Karlsson until this season when he led the league in blocked shots. That got old-timers hot and bothered real quick.
Shattenkirk is a better defenseman than most of the Pens’ d-core and he plays on the third pair. I give Washington the edge.
Special teams: advantage Capitals.
In the regular season, who had the better powerplay? Answer: neither. Both teams were tied for third in the NHL at 23.1%. What about in the postseason? Well, Pittsburgh has the better percentage but both teams scored five powerplay goals in the opening round.
What about penalty killing? In the regular season, Washington was seventh in the league at 83.8%. Pittsburgh was much further down the list at 79.8%, tied for 19th with the New York Rangers. So far in the playoffs, they have identical kill rates, allowing one goal every six opportunities. Washington has been shorthanded 18 times, whereas the Penguins only were called for 12 penalties.
I could write essays comparing the special teams of these two teams, especially the powerplay. Seriously, how do you compare a roster that trots out Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel to a roster that features Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie and Nick Backstrom? If you were to make a dream lineup of six forwards from all 30 teams on your All-Star Powerplay Unit, those six would probably be the ones you would choose.
Kessel and Malkin both have four powerplay points this postseason. Kevin Shattenkirk and T.J. Oshie lead the Capitals with three each.
The Capitals and Penguins have met four times this season. The Penguins were 4-for-12 on the man advantage. Washington went 5-for-20.
This is such an even battle at special teams that I’m tempted to award a draw. Since that’s a cop-out, I’ll award the Capitals a narrow advantage simply because I believe they are better equipped on the penalty kill in terms of personnel. But in a series like this where it is sure to be an offensive slug-fest, I’m not even sure that it will matter all that much. It’s a wash. Both teams are going to score at will on the powerplay.
Goaltending: advantage Capitals.
Marc-Andre Fleury has the reigns of the Pittsburgh Penguins. I’ll bet Jim Rutherford is glad he didn’t deal him away at the deadline like people thought he would, huh? Matt Murray is going to be out of commission for a while, from the sounds of it. So hope will be placed in the man who led the Penguins to the Cup eight years ago.
Of course, last year it was Matt Murray who shut down the Capitals. The Caps won two home games but could not get anything going on the road, losing the series in six games. When asked why Washington was handed an early exit, Ovechkin gave credit to Murray.
Fleury being in net changes things in the sense that Matt Murray is objectively the better goaltender. But regardless of who was going to be in net for the Penguins, the Capitals were going to have the upper-hand. It’s near impossible to beat Braden Holtby on paper. Holtby was named a finalist for the Vezina trophy once again earlier this week. While he probably won’t win, he is among the game’s elite.
With that said, Holtby took a few games to get into a groove. Whether it was allowing uncharacteristic goals or simply just Toronto getting the best of the Washington defense, the Maple Leafs gave Holtby and the Caps quite the scare. Toronto scored 14 goals in the first four games of the series before Holtby slammed the door and allowed just two in the final two.
Fleury allowed 13 in five games.
In the regular season, Fleury made three starts against the Caps and allowed 11 goals. He won one in the shootout. In one particular game, he allowed five goals on 25 shots and was yanked. Holtby started all four games against the Penguins, allowing 10 goals. He too was pulled in the 8-7 overtime thriller that came back in January.
Bold Predictions:
1) Pittsburgh will not lose at home.
2) Carl Hagelin will play and shore up the Pens’ penalty kill.
I say that this series will be shorter than people believe. Most say this goes the distance. I say that they split the opening two games in Washington, but Pittsburgh will not lose at home. That means that it will be 3-1 after four games. If that happens, I don’t see a Capitals comeback.
So I’m going real bold here. It’s why I get the big bucks.
Prediction: Penguins in 5.
