The Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers are set to collide after slaying two giants of the Atlantic Division.
Ottawa finally buried a depleted Boston Bruins team in six games with an overtime winner off the stick of Clarke MacArthur. Four of the six games in the series went to extra time, one even went into double overtime. All six were decided by one goal.
New York topped the Montreal Canadiens in six games. The Rangers found themselves down 2-1 in the series and made the appropriate changes to get the job done. Pavel Buchnevich was insterted into the lineup and the team focused more on puck movement and passing over hitting and grit. Three consecutive wins later and the Blueshirts are moving on.
The last time these two teams met in the postseason was 2012. It went seven games. Things got heated, to say the least. Brandon Dubinsky and Brian Boyle mixed it up regularly with Chris Neil. Craig Anderson stood on his head. The Garden serenaded Daniel Alfredsson with mocking countdown chants. Henrik Lundqvist argued about kicked goals.
Times have changed. Some of the personnel has remained. Let’s take a look at the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Rangers.
Ottawa had the higher-scoring series against the Boston Bruins. With that said, they were competing against a team that had two of their regular defenseman healthy. If not for a herculean effort from collegiate call-up Charlie McAvoy, the series could have been a disaster for Boston.
Ultimately, the Rangers have a better makeup top to bottom in their forward lines. Rick Nash and Mats Zuccarello were monsters in the opening round. Jimmy Vesey had himself a solid series. Pavel Buchnevich was an immediate boost to the lineup. Plus, we have yet to see the true emergence of Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller and Chris Kreider. With the focus being less on hitting and more on skill in this particular series, this trio could be more active.
Kreider was a bit more prevalent in the action after being reunited with Mika Zibanejad and Buchnevich.
And speaking of Zibanejad, it is only fitting that the two marquee players heading into this matchup were traded for each other in the offseason. After a quick playoff exit and with some salary decisions to make, the Rangers dealt away Derick Brassard for the younger (and bluntly, better) Zibanejad. Zibanejad led the Rangers in scoring with four points in the opening round, though he got off to an awful start.
Who is leading the Senators in playoff scoring, you ask? Yep. Brassard. Brassard had eight points in six games and has a knack for being in the right place at the right time. There’s a reason he is called Big Game Brass, after all. It’s not like James Shields in the MLB where he has the nickname Big Game James even though he really is not all that good in “big games.”
When Zuccarello was asked about Brassard, he said: "Who? I don’t him." He later said no texts or calls have been made. All business #NYR
— Brett Cyrgalis (@BrettCyrgalis) April 26, 2017
Similarly to the Rangers, the Senators have not seen the best out of Mark Stone. Stone had a goal and an assist in the first round, struggling to get high-danger chances. Stone will need to be a leader on the forward lines for the Senators.
Defense: advantage Senators.
Erik Karlsson. That is all.
Okay, perhaps there is a bit more to it. Karlsson is dealing with two hairline fractures in his left foot, so reports say. And yet he still played incredibly in the first round and is showing no signs of stopping. He is likely on his way to the Norris Trophy this year, rightfully so.
Ottawa and New York both have their own pairings that need to be better, plain and simple. The Senators need the Dion Phaneuf-Cody Ceci pairing to stop bleeding shots. They are so slow and Phaneuf has a bad habit of wandering from his assignment that it could open up the middle of the ice for two of the best passers in the game in Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello.
With that said, perhaps Phaneuf playing on the left side will slow up right wingers Chris Kreider and Rick Nash if he takes a physical edge. But that means he will have to keep up.
That said, Dan Girardi has plenty of moments where he forgets his assignment and floats in the defensive zone. But Girardi actually had a very successful first round. Marc Staal and Nick Holden? Abominable. Simply horrific. And there is no good replacement for either one, because Alain Vigneault refuses to use Adam Clendening and Kevin Klein was somehow even worse than Holden when inserted in the lineup for Game 3 (his final game as a Ranger. Book it).
Staal and Holden have a big weight on their shoulders. Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi were fine, but they get ground down with big minutes. Brady Skjei and Brendan Smith have played terrifically. But it’s a six-man system Vigneault runs. Staal and Holden get 20 minutes a night. That’s a lot of responsibility.
And they have stunk harder than any pairing in the NHL playoffs, period.
Advantage Karlsson.
Special teams: advantage Senators.
Ottawa was 5-for-23 on the man advantage in the first round. New York was 1-for-15. Before Pavel Buchnevich was reunited with the top powerplay unit, the Rangers looked like lost dogs on the man advantage- all simultaneously chasing the puck with no structure and no patience.
Remember when Kevin Klein was on the powerplay in Game 3? Man, that game was not good for him. Or his coaching staff.
Scott Gomez once said that one of the worst things to happen to a powerplay unit is it is broken up and juggled. If personnel is changed too much, he said, there is no sense of cohesion. Everyone needs to be on the same page so that they know where their weapons are. The Rangers juggle their powerplay units far too much for their own good, and it has stunted their growth.
Derick Brassard and Bobby Ryan both had four powerplay points against Boston. Mats Zuccarello scored the lone powerplay goal for the Rangers against Montreal, though Mika Zibanejad did have a shorthanded goal for what it’s worth.
Goaltending: advantage Rangers.
Craig Anderson deserves all the respect in the world. Truly, he does. But he allowed some real softies in the first round to the Boston Bruins, and the Bruins were not terribly successful at breaking through to Royal Road.
The Rangers made adjustments in their series with Montreal to get in Carey Price’s grill and take his eyes away. If they are able to carry that strategy on against Ottawa, they are going to get quality chances.
Henrik Lundqvist had a worse statistical regular season than Craig Anderson, there is no denying that. But let’s be real, the regular season means nothing at this point. It’s window dressing. Pocket lint. Lundqvist is an elite goaltender any day of the week in any month of the year.
Lundqvist had a .947 save percentage in the first round. Anderson had a .921 save percentage, but it was in the .800s before his Game 4 shutout. He turned things around quick at the end.
Bold Predictions
1) Guy Boucher will out-coach Alain Vigneault. I’m not sure what to point to as tangible evidence for this, but just look for that narrative to pop up. It will happen. The Sens are very good at adapting in-game.
2) Derick Brassard will get into a scrap with someone he is friends with.
3) Erik Karlsson will lead the series in scoring.
Prediction: Rangers in 7.
