The Washington Nationals will be taking on their divisional nemesis Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will showcase the matchup. The game gets underway at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Vegas has listed Miami (+140) as the underdog to Washington (-150). The total is sitting at 8 runs and bettors can take the over or the under for -110. Runline odds sit at -105 for taking the Nationals -1.5 runs and -115 for the Marlins +1.5 runs.
The Nationals are 27-22 SU and are 23-25 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.3 units for moneyline bettors and 1.1 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 19-31 SU and 26-23 ATS. The team has gained 0.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 1.8 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Miami games have had an over/under record of 23-26 so far in 2018. The Nationals have an over/under record of 21-25-2.
The right-handed Tanner Roark is the probable starter for Washington. Roark is 2-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 53 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made three starts against the team in 2017, posting a 1-0 record with a 6.14 ERA and 10 strikeouts.
The Marlins will put the ball in the left hand of Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 6.55 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), who’s got 14 punchouts and 12 walks. Chen did not record a start against the Nationals in 2017.
Washington’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 3.02 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.07 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.41, along with a K-per-9 of 9.85.
The Nationals offense has slashed .239/.327/.407 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Shortstop Trea Turner and second baseman Howie Kendrick have led Washington’s hitters. Turner is hitting .268/.363/.423 with six home runs, 20 RBIs, 29 runs and 13 stolen bases, while Kendrick (.303/.331/.474) is up to four homers, 12 RBIs and 17 runs scored.
Turner seemed to have a little trouble hitting left-handed pitchers on the road in 2017. Across 49 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .217/.265/.348 (his overall season line was .285/.340/.455).
For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 5.2 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.45, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a 5.65 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 20 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.29 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.85.
Miami’s hitters are putting up 3.4 runs per contest, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .251/.340/.402 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .295/.333/.389 with 57 hits, 21 RBIs and 28 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .277/.364/.386 with 51 hits, 22 RBIs and 27 runs.
Anderson enjoyed hitting against righty pitching at home last year, slashing .303/.425/.455 across 40 such plate appearances (his total season line was .262/.337/.369).
The Nationals have lost 8.8 units and are 7-10 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to 10 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 2.0 units and are 19-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 16 of those games, as opposed to 20 that’ve cashed the under.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – UNDER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Nationals have won three of their last four games SU.
Miami has posted 20.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.2 over its last five.
The Nationals have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
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