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Week 4 Free Betting Pick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) are set to pay a visit to the Chicago Bears (-3) at Soldier Field. Kickoff for this matchup is pegged for 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to televise the action.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears Betting Preview

In this Sunday NFC game, Chicago has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Buccaneers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Bears are -140. It appears that there might be multiple good live betting scenarios in this game.

The opening line was originally set at -2, but has recently shifted.

The profitable Buccaneers are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 4.5 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-0. The Bears are up 1.0 unit this season. The team is 2-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 1-2.

The Buccaneers are 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bears are also 2-1 SU.

The Bucs dropped one to Pittsburgh 30-27 in a Week 3 matchup where their secondary allowed the Steelers to air it out for 353 yards and three touchdowns. JuJu Smith-Schuster had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 116 yards on nine catches. On the offensive side, Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 30 passes for 411 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Peyton Barber (33 yards on eight rush attempts) mounted the ground attack. Mike Evans (six receptions, 137 yards, one TD) and O.J. Howard (six catches, 72 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

The Chicago Bears are coming off of a 16-14 win over Arizona in Week 3. The defense held its ground in the victory, limiting the Cardinals to just 193 passing yards and 53 rushing yards. Christian Kirk had a good outing in the loss for Arizona, accounting for 90 yards on seven catches. For Chicago, Mitchell Trubisky completed 24-of-35 passes for 220 yards and one interception. Jordan Howard (61 rushing yards on 24 attempts, one TD) and Tarik Cohen (53 yards on five carries) handled the running game as Taylor Gabriel (six receptions, 34 yards) and Trey Burton (four catches, 55 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Tampa Bay’s run the ball on 39.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Chicago has an overall rush percentage of 45.0 percent. The Buccaneers have run for 73 yards per game and have only one touchdown on the ground this year. The Bears are putting up 116 rushing yards per game and have two total rush TDs.

It appears that the Bears ought to own the advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Buccaneers have ran for 3.0 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents.

The Bucs offense has logged a ridiculous 410 yards/contest through the air overall and has 11 passing score so far. The Bears have put up 197 pass yards per game and have two total pass TDs.

Defensively, Tampa Bay has allowed 71 rush yards and 375 pass yards per game. The Chicago defense has allowed 253.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 65.3 yards per game on the ground. The Bears are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.19 to opponents, while the Buccaneers have allowed an ugly 8.57 ANY/A.

Offensively, Fitzpatrick has already amassed 828 passing yards this year, and has completed 65 percent of his 78 attempts with seven scores through the air and three interceptions. Fitzpatrick has a pristine 10.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.47 over the past two games.

Mitchell Trubisky has connected on 47-of-70 passes for 391 yards, zero TDs and one INT for Chicago. His ANY/A sits at a terrible 3.95 for the year and 3.84 over his last two outings.

These two squads faced off last year with the final result being a 29-7 win for Tampa Bay.

Free NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears

SU Winner – Bears, ATS Winner – Buccaneers

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Notes

Team Betting Notes

The Chicago D has registered twice as many sacks as Tampa Bay this year (14 versus seven).

Both teams have lost two fumbles this season.

The Buccaneers offense has tallied five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bears have accounted for zero such plays.

The Tampa Bay defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Chicago has given up two such plays.

Both teams have produced one rushing play of 20+ yards. The Tampa Bay offense has recorded six running plays of 10+ yards while Chicago has accounted for eight such plays.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bears have given up zero such runs.

Chicago was the underdog by 5 points in its last outing and the O/U was set at 39. The under cashed and Chicago covered in the team’s 16-14 victory over Arizona.

In its last three games, Chicago is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Tampa Bay was the underdog by 3 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 46.5. The over cashed and the spread pushed in the 30-27 loss to Pittsburgh.

As a team, Tampa Bay has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over its last two outings.

Chicago has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last two.

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Written by GMS Previews

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