Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Betting Preview
Kansas City is a live dog in this Sunday matchup and is currently getting 3 points. The Chiefs are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -150. Some solid live betting opportunities could exist during this game, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 59 points.
The game’s total has been driven upward after originally being set at 58. The opening line has remained firm.
The surprising Chiefs are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.9 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 3-2. The Patriots are down 1.1 units this season. The team is 3-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-3.
The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Patriots are 3-2 SU.
The Chiefs are looking to stay unbeaten following a 30-14 win over Jacksonville in Week 5. The passing game could’ve been sharper as Patrick Mahomes completed 22 passes for 313 yards and two interceptions. Kareem Hunt (87 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack. Sammy Watkins (six receptions, 78 yards) and Travis Kelce (five catches, 100 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
New England is coming off of a 38-24 win over Indianapolis a week ago. Tom Brady completed 34-of-44 passes for 341 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Sony Michel (98 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) led the running game as James White (10 receptions, 77 yards, one TD) and Julian Edelman (seven catches, 57 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
When analyzing offensive play-calling, each squad has a remarkably similar (44-56) run-pass ratio on the season. The Chiefs have rushed for 116 yards/game and have six scores on the ground this year. The Pats are averaging 113 rush yards per game and have four total rushing TDs.
The Chiefs offensive scheme has tallied 303 yards per game in the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Pats have put up 252 pass yards per game and have 12 total pass scores.
Kansas City has allowed opponents to run for an average of 119 yards and pass for 360 yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 262.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 114.0 yards per game on the ground. The Pats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.87 to opponents, while the Chiefs have given up a 6.50 ANY/A.
Offensively, Mahomes is up to 1,209 passing yards this season. He’s completed 64 percent of his 131 attempts with 13 passing scores and only two interceptions. Mahomes has a 9.95 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.26 over the past two games.
On the other sideline, Tom Brady has completed 98-of-144 passes for 985 yards, nine TDs and four INTs. Brady’s ANY/A sits at 6.32 for the year and 7.03 over his past two games.
When these two teams met last year, Kansas City got the victory over New England, 42-27.
Free NFL Tip: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
SU Winner – Chiefs, ATS Winner – Chiefs, O/U – Over
Team Betting Notes
New England has lost three fumbles this season while Kansas City has let one get away.
The Kansas City D has more than twice as many sacks as New England this year (15 to seven).
Kansas City has produced 4.10714285714286 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
New England has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
In its last three contests, New England is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Kansas City was favored by 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 48. The under cashed and Kansas City covered in the 30-14 win over Jacksonville.
Over its last three matchups, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
New England was favored by 11 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 49.5. The over cashed and New England covered in the 38-24 win over Indianapolis.
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