The West Virginia Mountaineers visit Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders this Saturday at 12:00pm EST in a Big 12 matchup. West Virginia is favored by 5.5, with the Over/Under set at 74.5.
This time last year was certainly more enjoyable for Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury. The young Red Raider quarterback-turned-first year-coach was 5-0, had a 20th ranked team and a promising walk-on freshman quarterback in Baker Mayfield. Kingsbury was receiving plenty of positive attention, with many surprised at the rookie coach’s fast start.
Fast forward to 2014, and things aren’t so rosy.
The Red Raiders lost Mayfield to an injury, and went on to lose their last five regular season games in 2013. Mayfield eventually transferred to OU. Things haven’t fared much better so far this season, where they currently sit at 2-3, and at the bottom of the Big 12. Many are now wondering if Kingsbury’s early 2013 success was merely a fluke.
Since opening the season with close victories over lowly Central Arkansas and UTEP, Texas Tech went on to give up at least 45 points in three straight losses to Arkansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, respectively. Quarterback Davis Webb, who replaced Mayfield in 2013, has anchored a Red Raider passing attack that ranks 11th nationally with 335.4 yards per game. Webb injured his non-throwing shoulder two weeks ago at Oklahoma State, and had his worse game of the season the following week in a loss to Kansas State, a performance that included a career-high four interceptions. Kingsbury doesn’t put all the blame on Davis, however. “It’s a combination of everything,” he said. “Bad play calls, tough reads, and not being in the right spot…it’s not one person.”
If the Red Raiders want to have a chance against the Mountaineers, they’ll need to make some defensive adjustments. Tech ranks 120th nationally in points allowed, with an even 40.0 per game. They are allowing 470 yards per game, with 257.4 of that coming via the ground, which is the worst in the country. Junior defensive lineman Branden Jackson remains optimistic. “The defense is coming together,” said Jackson. “We’re trying to get it together and be like a Ravens-type defense, that can hold the opponent to under 14, 17 points.” Don’t expect that kind of performance against West Virginia.
Coach Dana Holgorsen’s Mountaineers (3-2) have had a rather tough road thus far, having fallen to Alabama 33-23 to begin the season, and suffering a 45-33 loss to Oklahoma in the fourth week of the season. West Virginia is coming off of a 33-14 win over a terrible Kansas team, a game that saw a talented Mountaineer offense only reach the end zone twice. Quarterback Clint Trickett was his usual efficient self, going 20 of 35 for 302 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Trickett currently leads the country in pass efficiency. Mountaineer receiver Mario Alford had 196 all-purpose yards, which in included a 97 yards kick return in the 3rd quarter that essentially put the game away.
Defensively, the Mountaineers have fared much better than the Red Raiders. Their 186.8 passing yards allowed per game is good for 21st nationally. They are allowing 171.8 yards per game on the ground. Despite the defensive advantage, Trickett knows that he will still have to outgun Davis Webb, who burned the Mountaineers for 462 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-27 win in Morgantown last season. Holgorsen is quick to downplay Webb’s recent struggles. “Davis Webb is still the Davis Webb that he was last year when he came out and beat us in the second half,” said Holgorsen. Fortunately for Holgorsen, his quarterback has Kevin White to throw to, who leads the country with 765 receiving yards.
Important Trends
West Virginia is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine, and OVER in four of their last five on the road. WV is 2-4 ATS in their last six road games. Texas Tech is 2-9 ATS in their last 11. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 14, which includes five of their last five at home. Tech is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Texas Tech averages 29.6 points per game, while West Virginia averages 25.8 points allowed per game.
Prediction
Both teams are very skilled offensively. While Tech is among the nation’s leaders in passing yardage, it has not fully translated to points on the scoreboard. Kingsbury’s team is running the ball more than they ever have, and this will allow time to run faster when they have the ball. West Virginia surely will look to take advantage of the nation’s worst run defense and run the ball more than they have in recent games. This will open up the field for arguably the best quarterback/receiver combo in the country to go to work and open up a sizable lead early. Davis Webb will have an efficient day, but continue to make mistakes against a very good Mountaineer secondary. Both teams are poised for a big play or two on special teams. The Red Raiders always perform much better at home, and are likely to not let the game get out of hand, but the advantage will not be enough to stop a well rounded Mountaineer team trying to climb the ranks in the Big 12. With the increase in running plays, expect the score to stay under 74.5.
Pick: West Virginia (-5.5) with the Under of 74.5.
