The Dallas Mavericks (6-17) meet the Denver Nuggets (13-9) at American Airlines Center. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 4, 2017.
Dallas is a 3-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 209 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
The Nuggets come in on a high note after defeating the Los Angeles Lakers in their last outing, 115-100. The Nuggets forced 21 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.264 (above their season average of 0.195). Denver received a boost from Jamal Murray, who was the game’s leading scorer with 28 points on 8-for-20 shooting.
In the Mavericks’ last matchup, they won big over the Los Angeles Clippers, 108-82. The Mavericks, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.9, had a ridiculous mark of 35.7 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.557 (above their season average of 0.498). J.J. Barea was the game’s leading scorer with 21 points on 8-for-12 shooting.
Dallas could have difficulty getting to the foul line in this matchup. The Mavericks rank 25th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.177, while Denver ranks second in FTA rate allowed (0.159). Moreover, the Nuggets, who rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.4 percent), will face a tough challenge against the Mavericks, who rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.7 percent).
Denver heads into the contest with records of 13-9 straight up (SU) and 9-13 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 22 games, 13 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 6-17 SU and 9-14 ATS. Similarly to Denver, games featuring the Mavericks have gone under the total 52.2 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Gary Harris (17.4 points and 2.8 steals) has been great for the Nuggets while Dirk Nowitzki (13.4 points and 7.2 rebounds) has made great contributions to the Mavericks.
After the Nuggets won three out of four games against the Mavericks last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 109-91. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.7 vs. 15.7) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.595 vs. 0.466).
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 2-8 ATS with 6 unders and 4 overs.
At home, Dallas is 5-9 ATS with 7 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
Dallas is 6-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 5-1.
The Mavericks are 4-7 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 11-4.
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Dallas ranks last (36.7).
The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.8) while the Mavericks rank 24th (10.6).
Denver ranks fourth in fast break points per game (14.4) while Dallas ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
The Mavericks average 33.0 three pointers per game, which ranks third in the league. The Nuggets rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (30.2).
Dallas ranks 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while Denver ranks last (21.0).
The Nuggets rank eighth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while the Mavericks rank 25th (46.0).
Denver ranks 11th in steals per game (8.1) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.9).
The Mavericks rank 13th in assists allowed per game (22.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (24.4).
Denver ranks 15th in blocks per game (4.5) while Dallas ranks 25th (3.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 6.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 0.6 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 102.4 points per game (2.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 96.2 points per game (7.5 below their season average).
