One would imagine that Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, entering his final draft with the team, would be able to identify talent at tight end. That bodes well for South Carolina’s Hayden Hurst, whom the Ravens selected with the 25th overall pick.
Welcome to the Flock, Hayden Hurst! #RavensFlock #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/0GxPSCWpsb
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) April 27, 2018
Hurst was the first tight end off the board and the first selected by the Ravens in the first round since Todd Heap in 2001. He’s entering a great situation, though he doesn’t fit the profile of a weekly fantasy starter yet.
Reasons to Get Excited
Vacated Targets
As mentioned in the Michael Crabtree article, the Ravens lost just about their entire receiving corps. As such, they lead the NFL in available air yards. The important roster move for Hurst is the departure of Benjamin Watson. Watson led the team in receptions (61) and tied for the most touchdowns (four) in 2017. As a first-round pick, Hurst could pick up Watson’s old role sooner rather than later.
Early Reviews
If early reports are to be believed, Hurst is ahead of the curve. That’s very important considering the bleak history of rookie tight ends that we’ll cover later. If Hurst truly does make an immediate impact, he’ll certainly be worth monitoring due to how shallow the tight end pool tends to be.
Tools
For a rookie, Hurst is particularly seasoned. He’ll be 25 in August as he spent some time in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization before walking on at South Carolina. At 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds, he ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the combine. He had reliable hands and was first-team All-SEC in 2017. He’s about as seasoned as a rookie can get, meaning the poor history of rookie tight ends may not apply to him.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Rookie Tight Ends
The numbers aren’t pretty. Hurst could get 500 yards and score five touchdowns and that would exceed expectations. That would have made him TE13 in 2017. Some fantasy teams would be able to use that, but only if he costs next to nothing. Drafting someone at their ceiling is typically not recommended.
New Receivers
Though the Ravens lost receivers, Hurst wasn’t the only one brought in to replace them. They’ve added Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. They’ve also still got former first-rounder Breshad Perriman who is in a contract year. The receivers should make up for a sizable chunk of the targets Baltimore lost. That could mean Hurst is eased into the offense as more of a blocker at first.
Baltimore’s Other Rookie
Not only must Hurst compete for targets with Baltimore’s new receivers, but he has competition at his own position as well. The Ravens took another tight end, Oklahoma’s Mark Andrews, in the third round. Andrews, though not as complete a tight end, is arguably a better receiver. In fact, he was a wide receiver for the Sooners before making the switch to tight end. The argument could be made that he has a brighter fantasy future than Hurst.
Conclusion
Tight ends are nearly impossible to predict after the top three or four are off the board, so Hurst is about as worthy of a roster spot as any other low-level TE1. But history is against him and there should be other tight ends available at his price point who are at least slightly more reliable. For now, Hurst is little more than a desperation play in a deep league.
