The Utah Jazz (1-2) take on the Houston Rockets (2-1) at Vivint Smart Home Arena in game four of the Western Conference Semifinals. The game can be seen on TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 6, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 208.5 points with Houston opening as a 5.5-point favorite.
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz Betting Prediction
Harden scored a game-high 25 points in game three, in which the Rockets defeated the Jazz 113-92, covering as 4.5-point favorites. He also put up 12 assists. The game finished with a total of 205 points, which was just 4.5 points below the projected point total of 209.5 points. The Rockets had a much better turnover percentage (7.8 vs. 15.0) and had a better free throw rate (0.209 vs. 0.131).
Points could be at a premium as a pair of the league’s top defenses face off. Utah ranks first in defensive efficiency (102.3) and Houston is fifth (104.3). Furthermore, the Rockets commit the fourth-fewest errors in the league (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of the Jazz causes the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.5 percent).
Houston heads into the contest with records of 71-19 straight up (SU) and 46-42-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 55.6 percent of their games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Utah is 53-38 SU and 47-44 ATS. Games featuring the Jazz also have a slight tendency to go under the total (50.5 percent).
Clint Capela has averaged 16.8 points, 13.2 rebounds and 1.8 blocks over the last five games for Houston.
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Houston is 26-17-1 ATS with 26 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
At home, Utah is 24-21 ATS with 27 unders and 18 overs.
Utah is 37-7 when they allow under 100 points, while Houston is 35-3.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Rockets are 68-14 and the Jazz are 43-13.
Utah ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.7) while Houston ranks 27th (48.1).
The Rockets rank fifth in steals per game (8.5) while the Jazz rank 25th in steals allowed per game (8.4).
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.1) while Utah ranks 13th (29.6).
The Jazz rank third in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Rockets rank 15th (11.8).
Houston ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.8).
The Jazz rank first in assists allowed per game (19.8) while the Rockets rank 11th (22.4).
Houston ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Utah ranks 11th (4.7).
The Jazz rank second in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while the Rockets rank seventh (11.6).
Utah ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Houston ranks sixth (42.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
Utah is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.8, up from 8.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 99.8 points per game (4.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.8 points per game (5.5 above their season average).
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