Jarvis Landry wanted a new contract, and last month’s trade from the Miami Dolphins to the Cleveland Browns turned out to be just what he needed.
Welcome to Cleveland, Jarvis Landry!
Details » https://t.co/1UeKm6oGxu pic.twitter.com/UPBgbe8RE8
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) March 14, 2018
Landry is close to a five-year deal with the Browns that is believed to be worth $15 million per year. That would make him one of the highest-paid receivers in the league. Though he has earned the contract as a three-time Pro Bowler, joining the Browns rarely works out.
Reasons to Get Excited
PPR Monster
Landry had a knack for catching the ball in Miami. Last season, he broke Anquan Boldin’s record for most receptions in the first four seasons of an NFL career. Since 2014, only two receivers (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones) have more receptions than Landry.
He’s also 12th in yards over that stretch, ahead of guys with WR1 reputations like Doug Baldwin, Brandin Cooks and Alshon Jeffery. Though that is impressive, his incredible reception numbers are what set him apart. Should that trend continue, he’ll be a stud in PPR leagues yet again.
Hasn’t Needed Elite QB Play
You’re not going to believe this, but Cleveland is facing uncertainty at quarterback. That hasn’t been a problem for Landry, who nearly had his third consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2017 despite catching passes from Jay Cutler, Matt Moore and David Fales.
His quarterback from 2014-2016, Ryan Tannehill, was serviceable but never made it to a Pro Bowl. Some receivers fall apart without top-tier quarterbacks, but that doesn’t appear to be the case with Landry. His ability to catch passes all over the field makes him a worthy starter in all but the most dreadful situations.
Reliability
Landry has been automatic over the last three seasons. You can expect roughly 100 receptions, roughly 1,000 yards and no missed games. He hasn’t shown the “wow” factor like his college teammate, Odell Beckham, but he is remarkably consistent. As volatile as fantasy football can be, it’s nice to have someone who can put up solid numbers on a weekly basis.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Rookie QB Issues
The Browns will take a quarterback with the first pick in the draft. Sam Darnold is still the favorite, but the Josh Allen train gains more momentum every day. That could be a problem for Landry.
There’s something so weird about the possibility that Cleveland might draft Josh Allen because of his arm strength and simultaneously pay $15 million per year to Jarvis Landry, who ranks 108th out of 110 wide receivers in air yards per target over the last four seasons.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) April 12, 2018
When we said Landry was “a worthy starter in all but the most dreadful situations” this would be one of those situations. The consensus from scouts is Allen has some major accuracy issues. A rookie quarterback with a strong arm and poor accuracy would be Landry’s worst nightmare. If the Browns decide to go with the rookie over Tyrod Taylor, Landry’s numbers will likely suffer.
Targets
Landry joins a crowded receiving corps in Cleveland that includes Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman and David Njoku. He should see plenty of snaps in the slot, but that doesn’t mean there are enough targets to go around.
Landry tied for third in the league with 161 targets in 2017. It’s unlikely he’ll get anywhere near that many in his first season with the Browns.
Cleveland Receiving Struggles
Starting a Cleveland wide receiver was not a winning move in 2017. The Browns’ top three receivers featured a running back (Duke Johnson) and two tight ends (Seth DeValve, David Njoku). The top wide receiver was Ricardo Louis, who caught 27 passes on 61 targets for 357 yards and no touchdowns.
Yes, the Browns will have a new-look offense in 2018. Tyrod Taylor should be an upgrade over what they had last season. The running game could be rejuvenated, especially if the Browns land Saquon Barkley with the fourth pick. But the Browns were such an abysmal passing team that it’s difficult to imagine Landry walking in and putting up the numbers we’re accustomed to seeing from him.
Conclusion
We need to temper expectations for Landry. He could return to his Miami form at some point in Cleveland, but that likely isn’t this year. The Browns should be much-improved, but it’s doubtful they’ll be good enough to provide consistent fantasy points from their passing game.
Landry is always worth a gamble in PPR leagues, but those in standard leagues should likely pass unless he’s available below his average draft position. It’s possible he’ll flirt with 100 receptions again, but his floor is very low.
